How would the European Union fare without Russian energy?

Abstract

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced a rapid and profound rethink of the European Union's energy supply as the Europe-Russia energy decoupling has sharply accelerated. This contribution explores how Europe can manage without the imports of Russian coal, crude oil, oil products, and natural gas. We quantify the supply-side gap that will arise and discuss alternative sources of supply, as well as exploring the internal and global bottlenecks that will arise with any attempt to replace Russian molecules. This exercise illustrates that demand-side measures will be necessary to reduce energy consumption, most notably of natural gas. We offer a perspective of the deeper energy integration that EU leaders must strive for to ensure that the bloc is ready for life without Russian energy. We argue that by following four key principles, the bloc will manage without Russian energy: i) bringing forward all available short run domestic supply capacities, ii) all countries making honest and ambitious efforts to reduce demand, iii) enshrining cross-border flows and the functioning of European energy trade, iv) protecting the most vulnerable consumers.