Past Event

Trump’s energy policy: America first, climate last?

This event seeked to discuss the potential way forward for the US energy and climate policy, and its implications for both global energy markets and global climate change mitigation efforts.

Date: March 7, 2017, 12:30 pm Topic: Green economy

Video and audio recordings


summary

Connie Hedegaard argued that the Paris Agreements (PA) will survive Trump’s administration. China and India are on board thanks to Obama’s efforts and the PA will remain valid for 4 years after a declaration of withdrawal, if it were to happen. The early reaction from China’s President Xi Jinping at Davos leads to think that China will respect its INDC. However, one should not underestimate Trump’s claims as PA’s implementation is a highly fragile process. She reminded that climate change is not even mentioned in the White House energy strategy, which is all focused on energy independence. The technological frontier was led by low-carbon innovations, but future developments are now uncertain.The panelists analyzed from different perspectives what the Trump’s administration will imply for US energy and climate policy, as well as the EU and global implications. Tim Boersma noted that we are now in uncharted territories. While Obama’s administration brought more stringent environmental regulations, with Trump we are assisting to a dismantle of climate policies. According to the modeling he reported, withdrawing from Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) would not disrupt the ongoing trends, namely the phasing out of coal and the increasing use of renewables and natural gas. The CPP is thus simply reinforcing these trends. Moreover, renewables enjoy increasingly bipartisan support and there are several state-level initiatives (although especially in democratic States) which will help to contain Trump’s action.

Similarly, investors seem to re-direction their portfolios from long-term risk to short-term gains. She also believes that Europe will keep its old role by showing how to be a front-runner in a low-carbon economy while achieving economic growth.

Zhang Xumin confirmed that climate change is a top priority for China and that the INDC will be fulfilled. Last year China decreased its coal capacity by almost the capacity of Germany, although it is a very difficult process and it caused many layoffs. Green finance amounted to about USD 36 billion (39% of the total). Moreover, he claimed that the EU is a very important partner for China, particularly for capacity building and technology transfer, as it has more mature technologies in mitigation and adaptation.
Kristine Berzina looked instead at the implications for the energy market. Gas and coal will likely increase their role in the energy mix, thanks to deregulation (particularly by reducing water protection) and an increase in investments in fossil fuels. This will possibly lead the US to become a gas net exporter, besides already being an oil net exporter.

As a result, if LNG prices will plunge, Trump will probably have to subsidize coal to fulfil his announcements. On the US leadership on technology, she noted that it is mainly based in California, which is not on board with Trump on many issues. She thus expects the State to take individual action, especially on renewables, batteries and green technologies.

A few further points were clarified during the Q&A session:
• The US may withdraw from or ignore the PA, but it is more unlikely to withdraw from the UNFCC;
• An EU-China cooperation on climate change is currently considered as a win-win option by the EU Commission and Ministries;
• The G20 may be an important platform to discuss climate change with the forthcoming German presidency;
• The social cost of carbon should be factored in: while the Chinese carbon market will be kicked-off this year, a CO2 tax in the US is highly unlikely because of lack of incentive;
• Today a lot of emphasis is put on energy, but what about transport, agriculture, buildings and efficiency?

Notes by Enrico Nano 

  EVENT MATERIALS
                                                   

Presentation by Tim Boersma                                

Schedule

Mar 7, 2017

12:30-13:00

Check in and lunch

13:00-14:00

Panel Discussion

Chair: Simone Tagliapietra, Senior Fellow

Kristine Berzina, Transatlantic Fellow, Brussels GMF

Tim Boersma, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University

Connie Hedegaard, Chair, KR Foundation

Zhang Xumin, Political Counselor for energy issues,Chinese Mission to EU

14:00-14:30

Q&A

14:30

End

Speakers

Kristine Berzina

Transatlantic Fellow, Brussels GMF

Tim Boersma

Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University

Connie Hedegaard

Chair, KR Foundation

Simone Tagliapietra

Senior Fellow

Zhang Xumin

Political Counselor for energy issues,Chinese Mission to EU

Location & Contact

Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels

Matilda Sevon

[email protected]

Read article
 

External Publication

European Parliament

Tailoring prudential policy to bank size: the application of proportionality in the US and euro area

In-depth analysis prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

By: Alexander Lehmann and Nicolas Véron Topic: Banking and capital markets, European Parliament, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 14, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

External Publication

Global Economic Resilience: Building Forward Better

A roadmap for systemic economic reform calling for step-change in global economic governance to increase resilience and build forward better from economic shocks, prepared for the G7 Advisory Panel on Economic Resilience.

By: Thomas Wieser Topic: Global economy and trade, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 14, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Oct
20
13:00

Monetary policy in the time of climate change

How does climate change influence monetary policy in the eurozone? What potential monetary policy measures should be taken up to address climate risks?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Cornelia Holthausen and Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Banking and capital markets Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Oct
21
14:00

The contribution of hydrogen to European decarbonisation

What role will hydrogen play in Europe's decarbonisation?

Speakers: Alison Conboy, Andrea Pisano and Georg Zachmann Topic: Green economy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More by this author
 

Opinion

European governance

The inconsistency in global strategic relations

All of this talk on strategic retrenchment and autonomy is the language of escalation, not of appeasement and collaboration.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European governance, Global economy and trade Date: October 13, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Oct
28
14:00

Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?

What will be necessary to achieve climate goals and keep growing?

Speakers: Francesco Starace, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Green economy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article
 

Opinion

Xi’s pledge on financing coal plants overseas misses point

China’s domestic installation of coal-fired power plants continues at great pace.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 7, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

The only quick-fix to Europe’s energy price crisis is saving energy

The only thing Europe can quickly do to prevent a potentially difficult winter is to actively promote energy conservation in both the residential and industrial sectors.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Green economy Date: October 7, 2021
Read article
 

Opinion

Will China use climate change as a bargaining chip?

Beijing shows signs of changing tactics ahead of the COP26 conference.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 6, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

What is the link between biodiversity loss and financial instability?

Biodiversity loss impacts financial stability. How big is the risk of biodiversity loss for financial institutions?

Speakers: Sylvie Goulard, Romain Svartzman, Guntram B. Wolff and Michael Wilkins Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: October 5, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

Letter: The lesson Europe should learn from the gas crisis

Europe’s gas supply security could more effectively be safeguarded by ensuring that unused alternatives are maintained.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Green economy Date: October 5, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

A green fiscal pact

How can the European Union increase green public investment while consolidating budget deficits?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: September 29, 2021
Load more posts