The global impact of policy action in the world’s top five economies

As part of stepping up its multilateral surveillance, the IMF recently published in early August two new reports that focus on links between developments at the country and global levels. A key takeaway is that while global growth has continued to disappoint, much else has gone in the right direction. The two reports will be presented and discussed at Bruegel.

The 2013 Spillover Report finds that five years after the global financial crisis, the policies of the “Systemic 5” economies—China, the Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States— over the past year have averted very negative spillovers. That said, they remain at the root of significant downside risks and are not contributing to global activity as much as they might. If the world’s largest economies could make improvements in their policies in mutually reinforcing ways, they would lift global GDP over the longer run by as much as 3 percent, the report finds. The Spillover Report focuses on the impact of the policies of the “Systemic 5” on one another and on the rest of the world, due to the large volume of trade and financial linkages in today’s economy.

The 2013 Pilot External Sector Report examines the evolution of the external sector position—current accounts, exchange rates, capital accounts, reserves, and external assets and liabilities—of the world’s 28 largest economies plus the euro area. It finds that global imbalances have continued to narrow—for structural reasons, not just cyclical and that external sector positions have moved closer to where fundamentals suggest they should be. The report also highlights that external sector developments have been shaped by two key interrelated issues—the implications of policy measures, particularly in the advanced economies, to support growth and shifting risk sentiment.

Speakers

• Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Head, Task Force on Systemic Spillovers, International Monetary Fund
• Francis Vitek, Economist, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, International Monetary Fund
• David Robinson, Deputy Director, Africa Department, International Monetary Fund
• Steven Phillips, Chief, Open-Economy Macroeconomics Division, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
• Discussant - André Sapir, Bruegel and ULB
• Chair - Zsolt Darvas, Bruegel

Event materials

• Event summary download
• Summary of both reports
• 2013 Pilot External Sector Report
• 2013 Spillover Report
• 2013 Spillover Report - presentation download
• 2013 Pilot External Sector Report - presentation download

Practical details

• Venue: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
• Time: Monday 16 September 2013, 12:45 - 14:30 (A light lunch will be served before the event)
• Contact: Matilda Sevón, Events Coordinator - matilda.sevon[at]bruegel.org