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Stuck in transition?

Date and time: 20 January 2014 14:00

Structural reforms in most transition countries have stalled since the mid-2000s, even in countries that are still far from the transition frontier. The main question asked by the 2013 EBRD Transition Report is how to get transition "unstuck": what can be done to promote reforms that may lead to growth?

The presentations and discussions at the workshop will try to answer this question by focusing on three key issues: convergence and the role of economic institutions, markets and democracy, and education, institutions and human capital. In each session, a lead presentation will be followed by remarks from discussants and then a general discussion.

Programme

12.30-13.00 Buffet Lunch

13.00-13.10 Welcome, Erik Berglöf and Guntram B. Wolff

13.10-14.30: Session 1 – Convergence and the role of economic institutions

Chair: Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

Structural reforms in most transition countries have stalled since the mid-2000s, even in countries that are still far from the transition frontier. What are the growth prospects of the transition region in the longer term? Will income convergence with the advanced countries resume, and if not, why not? What are the political, social and human capital constraints standing in the way of new reforms, and how can these constraints be overcome? What are the factors influencing the quality of economic institutions and how can they be improved? How can we get transition "unstuck": what can be done to promote further reforms that may lead to growth?

Speakers:

13.10-13.30: Erik Berglöf, Chief Economist, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Deputy Chief Economist, EBRD

Discussants:

13.30-13.40: Anne Bucher, Director, European Commission, DG ECFIN

13.40-13.50: Ivan Miklos, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Slovakia

13.50-14.30: Q&A and Roundtable discussion

14.30-15.50 Session 2 – Markets and Democracy

Chair: André Sapir, Senior Fellow, Bruegel, and Professor of Economics at ULB

Since the onset of transition in 1989, many countries in the region have become consolidated democracies, while in others democratisation has stagnated or even gone into reverse. Why do some countries succeed in building sustainable democracies and others not? What role does economic development play in the process? Does transition to a market-based, private sector-led economy strengthen the medium and long-term prospects for democratic consolidation?

Speaker:

14.30-14.50: Alan Rousso, Managing Director, External Action and Political Affairs, EBRD

Discussants:

14.50-15.00: Claudia Senik, Professor at University Paris IV Sorbonne and at the Paris School of Economics

15.00-15.10: Sylvie Goulard, Member of the European Parliament

15.10-15.50: Q&A and Roundtable discussion

15.50-16.10: Coffee break

16.10-17.30: Session 3 – Education, institutions and human capital

Chair: Reinhilde Veugelers, Research Fellow at Bruegel and Professor at KUL

Education is critical for building a human capital stock conducive to economic growth and development. Primary and secondary education in transition economies parallel offerings in advanced economies in terms of quantity and quality. At the tertiary level, however, transition economies perform much worse, and the gap with advanced economies has increased over the last decade. What role does higher education play in human capital development and growth? How does the quality of economic, legal and political institutions affect the link between human capital and growth? What kind of institutional environment is needed to attract and retain skilled people, who will innovate and adapt to global technological changes, and so stimulate economic growth?

Speaker:

16.10-16.30: Karen Wilson, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

Discussants:

16.30-16.40: Sergei Guriev, Professor of Economics at the New Economic School in Moscow, and Visiting Professor, Sciences Po, Paris

16.40-16.50: Helena Schweiger, Senior Economist, EBRD

16.50-17.30: Q&A and Roundtable discussion

17.30 Close