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The trade crisis: good and bad scenarios and the EU's response

What role will the EU play in the resolution of the global trade crisis?


Uri Dadush

International Trade, Global Economic Prospects, Migration, Inequality

Non-resident fellow

Maria Demertzis

Macroeconomics, Monetary and Financial Stability, Political Economy

Interim Director

The world trading system, a source of prosperity, is under attack on three fronts – WTO immobility, US skepticism, and China’s exceptionalism. On each of these fronts of uncertainty both good and bad scenarios are possible.

How the EU responds to the uncertainty will not only help fashion the outcome for Europeans, but will also critically affect the prospects of smaller nations. The EU’s willingness to preserve the multilateral trading system is commendable. Yet, the risk of a collapse of the trading system as we know it is real and the contingency must be addressed systematically (Plan B). Under any scenario, good or bad, the EU’s present policy could be made even more robust.

Bruegel researchers will briefly cover the findings of their new paper, followed by a debate among participants.