Europe’s dependence on the US defence industrial base: source of transatlantic strength or geopolitical vulnerability?

The twin shocks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coupled with Donald Trump’s re-election to the U.S. presidency has caused observers on both sides of the Atlantic to express fears concerning the health and durability of the NATO alliance. In this panel debate, we discussed recent evidence that European dependence on the US military industrial base has increased and whether or not this should be a source of concern to European policy makers. On the one hand, Europe is well on its way to developing a robust defense manufacturing sector and that should serve U.S. interests as well as those of EU member-states. On the other hand, as Europe engages in significant rearmament, European dependence on specific US defence technology has increased and continuous purchases from the US re-enforce the US technological lead. 

According to a recent US-EU trade agreement, European states will “substantially increase procurement of military and defense equipment from the United States.” The increased defense effort can be seen as a providing the United States and Europe with unique and complementary strategic and operational advantages. But they can also be seen as a worrying increase of US leverage over Europe across multiple policy areas. In this debate, we discussed the topic from both a US and an EU perspective.