External authors

Andrea Consiglio

Professor of Mathematical Finance at the University of Palermo, Italy

Contact information

[email protected]

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Blog Post

Growth uncertainty, European Central Bank intervention and the Italian debt

European Central Bank intervention provides a buffer against the uncertainty faced by European Union economies in the face of COVID-19. For the time being, this intervention has alleviated concern about Italy's debt, but without it Italy is vulnerable to a debt crisis.

By: Andrea Consiglio and Stavros Zenios Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 28, 2020
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Blog Post

Incorporating political risks into debt sustainability analysis

DSA applies to crisis countries only, but an early warning system identifying vulnerabilities is relevant for all countries. A more general, less stringent, debt vulnerabilities analysis (DVA) could be used to assess countries’ debt management policies and identify vulnerabilities, without leading immediately to policy consequences. A more general framework could also incorporate political risks that are significant determinants of debt dynamics

By: Andrea Consiglio and Stavros Zenios Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: January 22, 2020