Opinion

中國兩會的主要目標在於長遠經濟規劃

2021年相對較低的經濟目標實際上有助於保持2021和2022年增長的相對穩定。

By: Date: March 12, 2021 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

The English version of this opinion piece was orignally published on China Focus.

在經歷了充滿意外和艱難的2020年,今年中國兩會 – 全國人民代表大會(NPC)和中國人民政治協商會議(CPPCC)如期召開。兩會期間發佈了本年度的政府工作報告,提出了今年和長期的經濟預期。去年中央政府並未就全年經濟增速設定具體目標,但今年GDP增長、通脹目標和赤字率安排都十分明確。

不過,政府設定的經濟目標十分保守:2021年GDP增長率目標為6%以上。實際上,大部分市場預測在7%-10%之間,例如國際貨幣基金組織預測為8.1%。有些觀點認為,設定6%的最低目標並不能發揮引領市場預期的作用。

我認為其實是可以的,但需要將目光放長遠。中國政府非常清楚積極的基數效應會推動今年經濟增長,但相應地,今年增長率升高也意味著下一年的基數效應就不那麼樂觀了。保持穩定更加重要,2021年如果設定了一個較高的經濟目標,意味著2022年的經濟目標就需要低得多。這並不能很好地引領市場預期。

經濟增長目標低於預期也表明,貨幣和財政政策的力度相較2020年會有所收斂。今年赤字率安排擬適度降至3.2%,居民消費價格漲幅3%左右。這也表明2022年仍會有一些刺激措施,以平滑增長率曲線。總而言之,中國政府會適度減少財政支援,但不會完全取消。

無論是GDP增長目標還是財政措施,都說明政府不僅僅在考慮2021年,而是還有長遠經濟發展。這具體體現在兩個方面,一是在2021和2022實現平穩增長,二是結構性調整政策。其中,三個結構性問題得到了重點關注,即應對人口快速老齡化、創新和開拓新市場;但在上一個五年計劃(2016-2020)裡提及的國有企業改革和發揮市場更大的作用,此次未被提到。

關於第一個結構性問題,即減少老齡化對經濟的影響,政府已經明確出臺政策開始著手應對這一問題,包括漸進式延遲退休年齡、推動實現適度生育水準等等。第二是提升科技創新能力,研發經費投入增長甚至超過GDP增速,鼓勵製造業企業增加研發支出等。第三,開拓貿易和投資新市場方面,中國已經宣佈成功達成《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》(RCEP)和《中歐全面投資協定》(CAI),並將會加快中日韓自貿協定的談判進程,積極考慮加入全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定(CPTPP)等。

中國另一個重要的結構性問題來自國有企業,國企資產回報率普遍降低,而且在相當多的行業仍處於主導地位。但“十四五”規劃和政府工作報告都未明確提及這個問題,從中可以看出,政府在經濟中仍會繼續扮演關鍵角色。

總而言之,此次兩會不僅為2021年做出部署,也為2022年及以後設定了發展方向和預期。2021年相對較低的經濟目標實際上有助於保持2021和2022年增長的相對穩定。並且,此舉能夠釋放一些資源來應對結構性問題,對於保持增長潛力是十分必要的。最明顯的就是老齡化,需要做出延遲退休年齡等一些犧牲。此外,需要通過進一步科技創新來加強自給自足和提高生產力。最後,伴隨中國人口增長下降和產能持續累積,新市場是緩解這一問題的關鍵。貿易和投資協議確實非常重要,未來可能會有更多協議出臺。但被忽略的一個關鍵點是生產模式的改變。


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