Download publication

Policy Contribution

The geopolitics of the European Green Deal

The Green Deal will redefine Europe’s global policy priorities; as such, it is a foreign policy development with profound geopolitical consequences

By: , , , and Date: February 2, 2021 Topic: Energy & Climate

Policy Contribution co-writted by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro from ECFR.

The European Green Deal is a plan to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, revolutionise the EU’s energy system, profoundly transform the economy and inspire efforts to combat climate change. But the plan will also have profound geopolitical repercussions. The Green Deal will affect geopolitics through its impact on the EU energy balance and global markets; on oil and gas-producing countries in the EU neighbourhood; on European energy security; and on global trade patterns, notably via the carbon border adjustment mechanism. At least some of these changes are likely to impact partner countries adversely.

The EU needs to wake up to the consequences abroad of its domestic decisions. It should prepare to help manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal. Relationships with important neighbourhood countries such as Russia and Algeria, and with global players including the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, are central to this effort, which can be structured around seven actions:

Help neighbouring oil and gas-exporting countries manage the repercussions of the European Green Deal. The EU should engage with these countries to foster their economic diversification, including into renewable energy and green hydrogen that could in the future be exported to Europe.

Improve the security of critical raw materials supply and limit dependence, first and foremost on China. Essential measures include greater supply diversification, increased recycling volumes and substitution of critical materials.

Work with the US and other partners to establish a ‘climate club’ whose members will apply similar carbon border adjustment measures. All countries, including China, would be welcome to join if they commit to abide by the club’s objectives and rules.

Become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, particularly in hydrogen and green bonds. Requiring compliance with strict environmental regulations as a condition to access the EU market will be strong encouragement to go green for all countries.

Internationalise the European Green Deal by mobilising the EU budget, the EU Recovery and Resilience Fund, and EU development policy.
Promote global coalitions for climate change mitigation, for example through a global coalition for the permafrost, which would fund measures to contain the permafrost thaw.

Promote a global platform on the new economics of climate action to share lessons learned and best practices.

 

Recommended citation
Leonard, M., J.Pisani-Ferry, J. Shapiro, S. Tagliapietra and G. Wolff (2021) ‘The geopolitics of the European Green Deal’, Policy Contribution 04/2021, Bruegel

Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

The Polish view on extending the EU-ETS: Red lines, room to manoeuvre, game changers

What are the red lines, what room is there to manoeuvre, and which elements of the new carbon pricing architecture can be real game changers?

Speakers: Wanda Buk, Maciej Bukowski, Adam Guibourgé-Czetwertyński, Michael Pahle, Aleksander Śniegocki, Urszula Stefanowicz and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 21, 2021
Read about event
 

Upcoming Event

Apr
29
14:00

The External Dimension of the EU's Green Deal: What Role for EU Development Cooperation?

The EU Green Deal's political scope extends far beyond climate neutrality and the European Union. What geopolitical and human repercussions does it have for its partners?

Speakers: Francisco André, Mikaela Gavas, Carla Montesi, Njuguna Ndung'u and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate, Global Economics & Governance
Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Apr
29
16:30

Covid-19 and the geopolitics of the Balkans

How have China, Russia, Turkey and others stepped up their activities in the Balkans at a time when the prospect of enlargement is diminished?

Speakers: Michael Leigh, Pierre Mirel, Aleksandra Tomanić, Justyna Szczudlik and Catherine Wendt Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

China has a grand carbon neutrality target but where is the plan?

China’s new long-term targets, to reach peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, are yet to be matched with a consistent short-term action plan.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 14, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

It’s time for a green social contract

The green transformation will have far-reaching socio-economic implications. Action is needed to ensure domestic and international social equity and fairness.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 12, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

The future of CAI

Untangling the politics behind the EU – China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 7, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

How to extend carbon pricing beyond the comfort zone

Rapid emission cuts need a carbon price for the whole economy. This must be introduced in careful stages. 

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 1, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

Navigating through hydrogen

Policymakers must address the need to displace carbon-intensive hydrogen with low-carbon hydrogen, and incentivise the uptake of hydrogen as a means to decarbonise sectors with hard-to-reduce emissions.

By: Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 1, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

External Publication

Form a climate club: United States, European Union and China

If the three biggest economies agree a carbon tax on imports, it will catalyse climate action globally.

By: Guntram B. Wolff and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 23, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Central banks don’t have to pick winners and losers to fight climate change

Disclosures and financial regulation don’t get enough respect as tools to reduce emissions.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: March 11, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

A new carbon pricing paradigm for the path to net zero

Which role carbon pricing could and should play in the future policy mix?

Speakers: Ottmar Edenhofer, Peter Liese, Sam Van den Plas, Beatriz Yordi Aguirre and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 9, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

A whole-economy carbon price for Europe and how to get there

Putting carbon pricing at the centre of the EU climate policy architecture would provide major benefits. Obtaining these benefits requires a uniform, credible and durable carbon price – the economic first-best solution, however, several preconditions required to attain this solution are not yet met. This paper proposes a sequenced approach to ensure convergence of the policy mix on the first-best in the long run.

By: Ottmar Edenhofer, Mirjam Kosch, Michael Pahle and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 9, 2021
Load more posts