Opinion

RCEP對亞洲影響積極,無阻價值鏈重組

總體而言,雖然RCEP成員之間在市場准入上實際提升幅度有限(例如中國和澳洲),但這一協定的意義在於讓世界意識到,亞洲仍然依賴中國市場,亞洲國家不能錯過中國放寬市場准入的機會,即使幅度有限。

By: Date: January 21, 2021 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This opinion piece was originally published on etnet.

正值美國總統換屆,中國在此時宣布簽署全球最大規模的自貿協定,時機再合適不過。在美國的政治真空期間,貿易自由化是提升中國的國際形象的一張好牌,這一從經濟角度出發的舉措比媒體討論的台灣或南海等敏感問題更加適合當下。

事實上,區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定(RCEP)的談判長達8年,而最為關鍵的自由化措施在最終協議中有所淡化。談判最初開始時,印度也在其中,不僅地理範圍更大,而且自由化的範圍也更大。此外,RCEP開始時被視作對跨太平洋夥伴關係協定(TPP)的回應,當時美中戰略競爭才剛剛開始,但現在RCEP的成員已經被推向不同立場。最好的例子是最近中國和澳洲之間的貿易摩擦,可能還有其他很多相似案例。同時,美國針對中國的制裁對RCEP也是一個不利因素。

美國和歐洲無疑是這個協定之外的主要劣勢方,但中國卻不一定是最大的贏家。中國雖然會從中受益,但協定中的其他經濟體會獲益更多。中國向亞洲其他地區出口面臨的貿易障礙減少(包括電子商務),另一方面,其他經濟體會日益鞏固以北亞投資為基礎、東盟為生產基地的價值鏈。事實上,東盟接受來自日韓的製造業直接投資(FDI)日益增加,規模已經超過了這些經濟體對中國的直接投資。對東盟投資的大幅增長不僅是由於中國勞動力成本升高,也為了分散投資,不過度集中於以中國大陸為中心的價值鏈中。因此,隨著日本、韓國和台灣與東盟的貿易一體化程度上升,尤其是中間產品方面,東盟得以提高製造業能力。不過,最終需求中的很大一部分可能仍來自中國。

總體而言,雖然RCEP成員之間在市場准入上實際提升幅度有限(例如中國和澳洲),但這一協定的意義在於讓世界意識到,亞洲仍然依賴中國市場,亞洲國家不能錯過中國放寬市場准入的機會,即使幅度有限。至於協定之外的國家,例如美國,我們可以預計拜登政府會很快做出反應,與亞洲就貿易協定展開談判。


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