Opinion

中國企業受累貿戰和疫情,但仍優於全球同業

總體上,中國企業的表現半喜半憂:相對全球同業表現較好,但收入下降和槓桿率升高帶來的風險也不容忽視。

By: Date: January 21, 2021 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This opinion piece was originally published on etnet.

繼在貿易戰中艱難求生後,中國企業隨後又受到了新冠疫情的衝擊。其實早在2019年初,因為中美戰略競爭的範圍從有針對性的關稅擴大到技術領域和相關制裁,中國企業的財務健康就已經開始惡化。但今年的疫情帶來的影響更大,不僅導致一季度經濟大幅下滑,通縮壓力加劇,並且企業的收入和盈利能力也受到了損害。

經濟增長放緩的一個直接後果就是削弱企業的財務健康。2020年一季度收入下降導致企業的償債能力下滑。中國政府先實施了貨幣刺激,但在2020年5月重新收緊,隨後出台財政刺激。中國與世界的不同之處在於,中國經濟復甦為企業提供了一艘救生艇,但全球同業並非如此。  除了收入自2020年二季度以來相對樂觀以外,中國企業的投資也在持續,而全球企業正在削減資本支出。雖然中國企業的資本支出增速較過去有所放緩,但增長仍處於正區間。人們普遍認為大部分資本支出來自國有企業。儘管投資增加有助於經濟增長,但帶來的一個擔憂是許多國有企業產能過剩,進一步推高了通縮壓力。

這種逆周期行為也意味著國有企業進一步提高了槓桿率,部分來自於持續的資本支出增長和運營成本的負擔。因此,中國國有企業的財務健康狀況比民企惡化得更嚴重,但仍好於正在與新一輪疫情感染和遏制措施作鬥爭全球同業。

從內部看,由於債務狀況良好和資本回報率較高,消費行業是所有行業中最健康的。電信和半導體等新經濟的表現也相對較好,公用事業緊隨其後。特別是與2019年相比,半導體行業出現了大幅改善,政府支持可能是一個主要原因。另一方面,由於人員流動限制和營業收入銳減,航空業處境最差,其次是基礎設施和房地產。

與世界其他地區相比的情況則是另一番景象。與全球相比,由於國內人員流動限制解除得較早,國內航班業隨之恢復,中國航空公司的處境要好得多。可再生能源、能源和公用事業與全球同業相比也是表現最好的,主要是因為槓桿率較低。另一方面,科技相關行業(資訊通訊技術和半導體)的財務健康明顯落後於全球同業。行業之間的巨大差異表明在全球供應鏈中,中國半導體行業推動技術升級的過程面臨著很多挑戰和風險,特別是美國可能會對中國發動更多制裁。

總體而言,中國企業遭受貿易戰和疫情的衝擊後,恢復速度快於全球同業,因此相對表現較好。雖然收入和資本回報率持續改善,但債務也在不斷累積。融資成本在疫情高峰時期大幅下降,但隨著貨幣政策收緊而再次回升。標誌性違約的增加也帶來更高的風險,尤其是國企。總體上,中國企業的表現半喜半憂:相對全球同業表現較好,但收入下降和槓桿率升高帶來的風險也不容忽視。


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