Opinion

ECFA重要性遞減 台灣出口未來關鍵 在保持科技優勢和出口多元化

從地緣政治角度來看,ECFA自動延續無疑是個好消息,但協議對台灣經濟的直接影響較過去變得有限。雖然台灣對中國大陸的出口仍然重要,但ECFA占整體出口的重要性因資通訊科技產業快速發展而縮小。由於台灣在全球製造業供應鏈遷移和價值鏈重組中占有重要位置,未來對美國和東南亞出口預計將會加速。

By: Date: October 20, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

该意见稿已发表于:

台灣和中國大陸關係跌宕起伏,兩岸於關係緩和時期得以多方面合作,2010年簽署的《海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議》(ECFA)稱得上是重要里程碑。2020年為ECFA生效滿十週年,隨著時空及國際局勢更迭,即使有關協議沒有明確的續約期限,未知的地緣政治因素仍將為未來經濟蒙上陰影。

儘管ECFA曾作為台灣制定貿易政策的重要風向標,但影響力正在下降。2017年,台灣符合ECFA資格貨品出口份額擴大至總出口的7.2%,達到2011年以來的高峰,但於2019年回落至6%。不過,對於玻璃、石化等在ECFA出口占比較高的行業,該協定仍十分重要。此外,占台灣出口比重最大的資通訊科技行業,並未被ECFA大幅度涵蓋,而是主要受惠於中國亦為簽署者之一的《資訊技術協定》(ITA)。但原本對ECFA較為依賴的行業明顯需要政府的支持,因此,政府應設立「 雨天基金」為受影響較大的行業提供緩衝,並鼓勵出口多元化。

資通訊科技產品相對優勢

在中國大陸的進口中,台灣目前是第三大進口來源,也是少數自2011年市場份額得以提升的貿易夥伴,但主要原因並不是ECFA,而是台灣的技術優勢。其中,資通訊科技和機械表現最好,但這兩個產業受惠於ECFA的程度相當有限。2019年,中國大陸有23%的資通訊科技產品進口來自台灣,遠高於2011年的16%。具體而言,台灣出口產品的市場份額從2011年的7.2%上升至2019年的8.4%,原因在於中國對來自台灣資通訊科技產品依賴度提高;來自台灣的資通訊科技產品占中國總進口的比重從2011年的3.3%上升至2019年的5.5%。

相較之下,玻璃和石化從ECFA中獲得的關稅優惠最多,但市場份額卻逐漸下降。因此,關稅只是部分因素,更重要的在於相對優勢。

目前中國大陸正在推動科技升級,但台商在其供應鏈中仍然至關重要;在2018年中國對外貿易排名前500大出口商中,台商企業就占了32%。

現在台灣面臨最大的挑戰,在於去全球化的趨勢和地緣政治風險;關稅和不確定性正在推動企業遷移供應鏈,更多企業為了分散風險選擇轉向本地生產,但企業仍然渴望生產成本較低的市場,東盟和印度或可從中獲益。但這也是推動結構性轉變的重要機會。來自美國的出口訂單份額已超越中國大陸及香港,尤其是台灣出口規模最大的資通訊科技產業。來自歐洲的資通訊科技產品訂單也顯著增多。不同於以往壓縮利潤、尋找最便宜的地點建立供應鏈,台商企業越來越需要跟隨客戶並滿足其多樣化的需求。

近岸外包及生產回流

上述趨勢近年由企業轉向東南亞近岸外包(Nearshoring)及製造業回流本地生產(Reshoring)已逐步反映。2018年後,台商出口訂單中的本地生產比率已超越中國大陸及香港;台商回流獲批准金額已達新台幣7,880億元(占GDP的4.2%,折合260億美元),並已反映在土地和物業需求上。最後,高科技領域的外商直接投資明顯上升,2018至2020年8月間,台灣獲批准外商直接投資有一半是來自歐洲。

總體而言,從地緣政治角度來看,ECFA自動延續無疑是個好消息,但協議對台灣經濟的直接影響較過去變得有限。雖然台灣對中國大陸的出口仍然重要,但ECFA占整體出口的重要性因資通訊科技產業快速發展而縮小。由於台灣在全球製造業供應鏈遷移和價值鏈重組中占有重要位置,未來對美國和東南亞出口預計將會加速。

隨著全球生產模式變化及新南向政策,台灣出口必定會包含更多本地生產以及於東南亞及印度生產基地的商品。因此,維持微妙的平衡將更加困難,但保持科技優勢和多元化分散風險,將會有助於台灣應對未來的挑戰。


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