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全球為數不多 台灣今年經濟有望正成長

台灣的貨幣政策和大多數國家相比仍屬相對緊縮,台幣升幅也是相對有限。總的來說,台灣第二季的GDP與其他國家相較算是非常優異,主因是行動管制少,所以衝擊也小得多。

By: Date: August 28, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

originally published on view.ctee

當全世界在努力克服Covid-19危機之際,台灣到目前為止的表現像是一片罕見的綠洲;因為除了2月初那幾星期之外,台灣今年以來幾乎沒有為了抗疫而實施任何行動管制。台灣最近發布的第二季GDP顯示,2月份早期管制措施拖累了台灣經濟,第二季全球封鎖帶來的影響更大,導致台灣第二季GDP由正轉負,但也僅是小幅轉負而已。與全球其它地方相較,台灣經濟仍相當具有韌性,下半年前景依然樂觀。

細看台灣經濟狀況,GDP成長率從第一季的1.6%掉到第二季的負0.7%,下滑的主要原因是消費和出口不振,但投資仍然保持強勁。財政政策雖對經濟有所助益,但與包括亞洲國家在內的許多其他國家相比,其作用相對有限得多。而台灣的貨幣政策和大多數國家相比仍屬相對緊縮,台幣升幅也是相對有限。總的來說,台灣第二季的GDP與其他國家相較算是非常優異,主因是行動管制少,所以衝擊也小得多。事實上,自年初以來,台灣幾乎沒有施行任何行動管制,這也抑制了消費的下行壓力。儘管如此,勞動市場的狀況仍具有挑戰性,高失業率及工時減少的員工人數增加,都會對民間消費帶來打擊。

儘管短期或有動盪,但台灣經濟下半年的前景仍然適度樂觀。第一,與香港、日本和新加坡不同的是,台灣暫時還沒有爆發第二波疫情。第二,資通訊和電子產品的外銷訂單大幅回升。第三,企業營收回升,這在半導體行業尤為明顯;金融、保險、醫療等行業也有回暖的苗頭。第四,台灣當局正在通過振興券和其他方式支撐消費。第五,民間投資依然不墜,而外國直接投資繼續增加。最後,房價又見成長,建築物使用執照件數的降幅有所收斂。辦公空間的低空置率表明了本地和外國投資的需求,而工業用地價格的上升,則顯示製造業的需求。

由於疫情對台灣的衝擊相對和緩,在當前利率已處於非常低的環境下,台灣央行可能會節省彈藥以應對任何未來可能出現的狀況。隨著全球風險情緒改善和外資回流,台幣表現相對強勁。目前很難看到這種趨勢會很快改變,因為這或許符合央行的意圖。一方面台灣已經在美國「匯率操縱」定義的邊緣,另一方面,出口並沒有受匯率升值影響,但不代表央行不會在必要的時候採取措施避免新台幣過快或大幅升值。

談到台灣經濟的未來以及台灣經濟會因新冠肺炎疫情而發生何種變化時,有幾個方面值得考慮。首先,台灣經濟對那些因疫情受創最深行業的依賴性相對有限;與泰國、香港甚至新加坡相比,赴台灣的國際遊客數量較少;航空業的相關性也不高。反而是資通訊(包括5G相關零組件)和生技等這次疫情的關鍵贏家行業,讓台灣在出口結構上較佔優勢。最後,押注於綠色能源,也應有助於提高公共投資的生產力。也就是說,台灣有很好的投資計畫,且正好是在最需要這種投資的時候。但重要的是這類計畫要保持強勁,不能因為看似更迫切的需求(卻可能欠缺效益)而偏離軌道。換句話說,應對不具生產力的企業進行必要的重組,也應當歡迎對外國競爭的開放度提高。在面臨巨變風雨飄搖的時期,這些都是說起來容易做起來難,但也恰恰是影響未來的關鍵所在。

總而言之,我們預計台灣經濟今年將呈正成長,且是全球為數不多的亮點之一,預估2020年GDP成長率為1.5%,2021年為2.9%。目前最緊迫的風險是第二波疫情,即使台灣控制疫情得宜,在全球局勢惡化之下,台灣也恐難置身事外。從結構性趨勢看,「工業4.0」 轉型會推動全球對於台灣5G產品和數據中心的需求。同時,台灣的綠色能源計劃應會繼續促進投資。此外,台灣尚有足夠的財政空間,而且還具備優勢產業(科技和生技),所以儘管有疫情影響,台灣經濟的前景看起來仍較許多其它國家為佳。


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