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External Publication

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

This paper’s main conclusion is that Russia’s economy cannot grow at the pace recorded in the early and mid-2000s because of the different external environment, the different stage of development and serious demographic headwinds.

By: Date: January 16, 2020 Topic: Global economy and trade

In the decade of the 2010s, the pace of economic growth in Russia slowed down to an annual rate of below 2% and most forecasts suggest that this is will be the new “normal” for the Russian economy at least in the medium-term. While politically and socially disappointing, such a growth slowdown is unavoidable due to adverse demographic trends.

A combination of a shrinking working-age population and population aging must lead to a lower growth pace as compared to the period when the working-age population was still increasing and the effects of population aging were limited (the decade of the 2000s).

Compensatory measures such as a gradual increase in the retirement age and an open labor migration policy, although economically positive, can only partly mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking domestic labor force. In this respect, Russia does not differ from other European countries and some Asian countries.

However, demography and shrinking labor supply cannot fully explain low potential growth. Stagnation in total factor productivity is another reason. It results from a poor business and investment climate, difficulty in diversifying away from the dominant role of the hydrocarbon sector, and deteriorating political and economic relations with the US and EU which limit trade, investment and innovation opportunities. To increase its potential growth, Russia needs comprehensive economic and institutional reforms that, in turn, will be conditioned by political reforms and by improved economic and political relationships with the US, the EU and Russia’s neighbors.

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Past Event

Past Event

China’s medium term outlook: Will innovation save China from becoming old before it becomes rich?

What can China do to stop the deceleration of its economy. Is innovation the solution?

Speakers: Jean-Francois Di Meglio, Alicia García-Herrero and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Digital economy and innovation, Global economy and trade Date: December 1, 2021
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Podcast

Podcast

A new consensus for economic resilience

Is there a need for systemic reform of global economic governance?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global economy and trade Date: December 1, 2021
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Upcoming Event

Dec
7-8
14:30

Future of work and inclusive growth: Digital dialogues

An end of year series of digital discussions on the Future of Work and Inclusive Growth in Europe.

Speakers: Janine Berg, Arturo Franco, Stijn Broecke, Esther Lynch, Mario Mariniello, Laura Nurski, Sharon Parker, Leah Ruppanner, Nicolas Schmit, Kim Van Sparrentak and Tilman Tacke Topic: Digital economy and innovation, Inclusive growth
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External Publication

Chinese economic statecraft: what to expect in the next five years?

Chapter from 'Storms Ahead: the Future Geoeconomic world order' on the expectations from the next five years of Chinese economic policy, published on 27 October 2021.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: November 26, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

Advancing global value and supply chains to mitigate the challenges arising from the pandemic

Session at the 1st ASIA-EUROPE ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS FORUM: Transitioning to a New Normal: Leveraging Global Value Chains, Multilateralism and the 4IR

Speakers: Carmen Cano, Alicia García-Herrero, Jong Woo Kang, André Sapir, Luca Silipo and Tetsuya Watanabe Topic: Global economy and trade Location: Phnom Penh, Cambodia Date: November 24, 2021
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Blog Post

Goodbye Glasgow: what’s next for global climate action?

After COP26, and as the debate on whether Glasgow represents a success or a failure dies down, what next for global climate action?

By: Klaas Lenaerts and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Green economy Date: November 18, 2021
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Opinion

European governance

Growth and inflation after the pandemic in the EU

Countries hit comparatively hard during the financial crisis, helped also by domestic and European policies, are bouncing back from the pandemic faster than their peers.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: November 18, 2021
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Opinion

Glasgow: a clearer sense of direction but with no hard numbers

Global climate action is visibly accelerating however the conference failed to deliver on the hard numbers.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Green economy Date: November 15, 2021
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Book/Special report

European governance

Instruments of a strategic foreign economic policy

Study for the German Federal Foreign Office produced by Bruegel, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and DIW Berlin.

By: Katrin Kamin, Kerstin Bernoth, Jacqueline Dombrowski, Gabriel Felbermayr, Marcel Fratzscher, Mia Hoffmann, Sebastian Horn, Karsten Neuhoff, Niclas Poitiers, Malte Rieth, Alexander Sandkamp, Pauline Weil, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: European governance Date: November 12, 2021
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Policy Contribution

European governance

Next Generation EU borrowing: a first assessment

The Next Generation EU programme is radically changing the way the EU finances itself and interacts with financial markets. This paper assesses the first design decisions made by the European Commission and the issuances that have taken place so far. It also outlines the potential risks and opportunities linked to this upgrading of the EU borrowing.

By: Rebecca Christie, Grégory Claeys and Pauline Weil Topic: Banking and capital markets, European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: November 10, 2021
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Blog Post

What to make of the EU-US deal on steel and aluminium?

While deeply disappointing that the surprise deal maintains aluminium and steel tariffs against the EU beyond a modest quota, it alleviates a major irritant in transatlantic relations and contains interesting and innovative features relating to climate policy and to dispute settlement under WTO rules.

By: Uri Dadush Topic: Global economy and trade Date: November 4, 2021
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Blog Post

European governance

Is the risk of stagflation real?

Most economic forecasts predict a return, in the medium-term, to pre-pandemic growth and inflation. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank and fiscal authorities need to be vigilant for signs of the contrary.

By: Monika Grzegorczyk, Francesco Papadia and Pauline Weil Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: November 2, 2021
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