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External Publication

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

This paper’s main conclusion is that Russia’s economy cannot grow at the pace recorded in the early and mid-2000s because of the different external environment, the different stage of development and serious demographic headwinds.

By: Date: January 16, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

In the decade of the 2010s, the pace of economic growth in Russia slowed down to an annual rate of below 2% and most forecasts suggest that this is will be the new “normal” for the Russian economy at least in the medium-term. While politically and socially disappointing, such a growth slowdown is unavoidable due to adverse demographic trends.

A combination of a shrinking working-age population and population aging must lead to a lower growth pace as compared to the period when the working-age population was still increasing and the effects of population aging were limited (the decade of the 2000s).

Compensatory measures such as a gradual increase in the retirement age and an open labor migration policy, although economically positive, can only partly mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking domestic labor force. In this respect, Russia does not differ from other European countries and some Asian countries.

However, demography and shrinking labor supply cannot fully explain low potential growth. Stagnation in total factor productivity is another reason. It results from a poor business and investment climate, difficulty in diversifying away from the dominant role of the hydrocarbon sector, and deteriorating political and economic relations with the US and EU which limit trade, investment and innovation opportunities. To increase its potential growth, Russia needs comprehensive economic and institutional reforms that, in turn, will be conditioned by political reforms and by improved economic and political relationships with the US, the EU and Russia’s neighbors.

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Podcast

Podcast

The geopolitical repercussions of the European Green Deal

EU policymakers need to wake up to the consequences abroad of domestic decisions.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate Date: February 3, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

The geopolitics of the Green Deal

Join us to mark the launch of the eponymous paper co-written with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Speakers: Stefano Grassi, Mark Leonard, Simone Tagliapietra, Jennifer Tollmann, Marc Vanheukelen and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Energy & Climate Date: February 3, 2021
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Policy Contribution

The geopolitics of the European Green Deal

The Green Deal will redefine Europe’s global policy priorities; as such, it is a foreign policy development with profound geopolitical consequences

By: Mark Leonard, Jeremy Shapiro, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 2, 2021
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Opinion

疫情對全球經濟的結構性改變或比想像的更深

現在是時候重新思考我們目前經濟模式中的基本原理,來減輕這些影響。

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 21, 2021
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Policy Contribution

Deglobalisation in the context of United States-China decoupling

After decades of increasing globalisation, there now seems to be a slowing, or even a turn to deglobalisation, meaning decelerating trade and investment and reduced global value chains. This trend seems to have accelerated because of the United States’ push to contain China in the context of their strategic competition. So far, however, there is less evidence of deglobalisation in terms of financial flows.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Junyun Tan Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 21, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

Health: Crisis governance for a vital global public good

Given the collapse in cooperation and of effective authority over health governance, what strategies should be pursued at international level, and by what means?

Speakers: Anne Bucher, Monica de Bolle, Amanda Glassman, Marisol Touraine and Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: December 17, 2020
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External Publication

European Parliament

Data flows, artificial intelligence and international trade: impacts and prospects for the value chains of the future

In-depth briefing and analysis on the issues of digital trade and the geopolitics of trade provided to the European Parliament.

By: Dennis Görlich, Michèle Finck, Georgios Petropoulos, Niclas Poitiers and André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament Date: November 26, 2020
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Parliamentary Testimony

European Parliament

Political assessment of possible future positive (cooperation) or negative (restrictive) attitudes of main trade partners of the EU

Testimony to the European Parliament on the geopolitical aspects of trade.

By: Dennis Görlich and Niclas Poitiers Topic: European Parliament Date: November 16, 2020
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Opinion

Globalisation needs rebuilding, not just repair

An attempt merely to restore the pre-Trump status quo would fail to address major challenges; the task ahead is one of rebuilding, rather than repair. It should start with a clear identification of the problems that the international system must tackle.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 29, 2020
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Opinion

The pandemic will structurally change the global economy more than we think

It is time to rethink many of the basic principles of our economic model to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 20, 2020
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External Publication

Diversification and the world trading system

Diversification is important because it is associated with economic growth and reduced volatility.

By: Mohammed Al Doghan, Abdelaaziz Ait Ali, Muhammad Bhatti, Carlos Braga, Uri Dadush, Abdulelah Darandary, Anabel González and Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 16, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2020 - Day 2

Second day of Bruegel Annual Meetings.

Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 2, 2020
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