Opinion

What else China can do to support growth in the short term

Recent data shows the downward spiral in the Chinese economy has somewhat eased on a cyclical basis, but it is still too early to cheer for a full stabilization.

By: Date: April 23, 2019 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This opinion piece was originally published in The Corner.

The Corner, logo

Recent data shows the downward spiral in the Chinese economy has somewhat eased on a cyclical basis, but it is still too early to cheer for a full stabilization.

Beyond the fiscal and monetary stimuli announced during the two sessions of the 19th National People’s Congress in March 2019, the question is what else China can do to support growth in the short term.

Out of the key reasons for the cyclical slowdown in 2018, namely the worsening sentiment due to the US-China trade war and the rapid shadow banking crackdown, the former can be considered as an external shock but the latter is self-inflicted. In this note, we use media-based big data to analyze the sentiment regarding how shadow banking evolved in China. We used the GDELT database and further classified the top news into regulation and market driven events. Hence, we estimate how negative or positive the public sentiment is regarding structured products.

According to our analysis, the sentiment on structured products in China has been negative since 2017 but with a noticeable improvement recently. Three phases can be identified in how sentiment regarding structure products has evolved in China in the past few years.

At the beginning of 2017, there is a clear expectation of a worsening regulatory environment for structured products, or more generally shadow banking products.

From July 2017 to mid-2018, the expectation turned into reality with a rollout of tighter regulations after the creation of a High Level Financial Stability and Development Committee within the State Council. One of the key regulatory changes is the harmonization of asset management products by 2020 which restricts banks’ offerings of guaranteed products unless there is enough capital backing such products.

However, sentiment has started to improve since the second half of 2018 as regulatory environment has softened again to allow for new types of off-balance sheet assets, namely through banks’ setting up wealth management subsidiaries.

In sum, besides the fiscal and monetary stimuli, China seems to be softening the very aggressive crack-down of the shadow banking. This is what it takes to revive growth cyclically, but the structural consequences may not be as appealing though.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to [email protected].

Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Trump’s International Economic Legacy

If Donald Trump loses the United States presidential election in November, he will ultimately be seen to have left little mark in many areas. But in the US's relationship with China, the decoupling of economic links could continue, and that could force Europe into hard choices.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 29, 2020
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

External Publication

Diversification and the world trading system

Diversification is important because it is associated with economic growth and reduced volatility.

By: Uri Dadush, Niclas Poitiers, Abdelaaziz Ait Ali, Mohammed Al Doghan, Muhammad Bhatti, Carlos Braga and Anabel González Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 16, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Non-summit shows EU-China ties at new low

There was nothing concrete to justify calling this video conference an EU-China Summit.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 16, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

China's 'dual circulation' plan is bad news for others' exports

This opinion piece was originally published in Nikkei’s Asian Review. Minds in Beijing are focusing increasingly on the upcoming meeting of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee next month. High on the body’s agenda will be sketching out a new official five-year plan for Asia’s largest economy. A freshly coined buzzword looks set to play […]

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 15, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

全球為數不多 台灣今年經濟有望正成長

台灣的貨幣政策和大多數國家相比仍屬相對緊縮,台幣升幅也是相對有限。總的來說,台灣第二季的GDP與其他國家相較算是非常優異,主因是行動管制少,所以衝擊也小得多。

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 28, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Relocating production from China to Central Europe? Not so fast!

Western European imports from central Europe have fallen dramatically, while imports from China fell much less, and had already recovered to pre-COVID level by April 2020. Central European governments should instigate new measures to foster the transition towards knowledge-intensive economic activities.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 20, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Coronavirus recovery: invest rainy day savings to boost Hong Kong’s economy

The Hong Kong government might want to consider diversifying its economy by using part of the savings earmarked for rainy days. Beyond cushioning the negative impact of Covid-19 on SMEs and households, it is one more reason to spend.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 6, 2020
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

China Has an Unfair Advantage in the EU Market. What Can Be Done to Level the Playing Field?

This article has originally been published in Brink News. The dominance of Chinese state-owned enterprises in China’s domestic market is giving them unfair advantages in the European Union single market as well. The EU Commission recently released a series of recommendations for leveling the playing field regarding foreign subsidies. Unfortunately, while useful, these ideas are unlikely to […]

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 28, 2020
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

China's targeted corporate shopping spree to continue, especially in Europe

Expect small, below the radar deals to continue to flourish and, by the same token, Europe to lose part of its edge in industrial technology and other strategic sectors.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 17, 2020
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

Debt relief for Sub-Saharan Africa: what now?

When G20 finance heads meet on 18 July, Europe will again need to lead on the group’s flagship COVID-19 initiative to postpone low-income countries’ debt service payments. For the first time, China has agreed to participate as an official creditor alongside members of the Paris Club. However, continuing lack of clarity on which Chinese creditors will participate, coupled with resistance from private sector creditors to voluntary participation, suggest that actual relief will be much less than originally planned.

By: Suman Bery, Sybrand Brekelmans and Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 14, 2020
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

Europe’s China problem: investment screening and state aid

China’s state capitalist economy poses a challenge to EU openness to foreign investment. In response, the European Commission 17 June published a White Paper on “levelling the playing field with regard to state aid”, contemplating sensible and balanced policies to protect the integrity of the European single market from subsidised foreign acquisitions. However, against the backdrop of collapsing global capital flows and limited existing FDI from China, there is little risk of excessive exposure, indeed a deepening of bilateral investment flows would be beneficial for both economies.

By: Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 2, 2020
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

Toward a smart Indian response to China

Rather than risking its soldiers' lives on the border, India should join 'middle power' economic coalitions to address China's behavior.

By: Suman Bery and Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 23, 2020
Load more posts