Download publication

Policy Contribution

A monetary policy framework for the European Central Bank to deal with uncertainty

In this Policy Contribution prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialogue, the authors review the emerging challenges to central banks, and propose an updated definition of price stability and an adequately refined monetary policy framework.

By: , , and Date: November 22, 2018 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This Policy Contribution was prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialogue of 26 November 2018 between ECON and the President of the European Central Bank. The original paper is available on the European Parliament’s webpage (here). Copyright remains with the European Parliament at all times.

Central banks face new challenges. First, the potential long-term decline in neutral rates of interest in advanced economies could reduce the space for central banks to make policy-rate cuts.

Second, the potential flattening of the Phillips curve (i.e. the weakening of the relationship between inflation and unemployment) in recent decades could reduce the ability of central banks to reach their inflation targets.
Third, the discussion on whether central banks should also target financial stability has re-emerged as a result of the crisis.

Fourth, the euro-area architectural framework remains incomplete. The problematic interaction between nineteen different fiscal policies and a common monetary policy, the lack of a stabilisation tool and differences in national macro-prudential frameworks would all suggest significant reforms are needed in these realms to strengthen the overall resilience of the system. However, the probability of seeing material changes before the next recession is relatively low, thus presumably leaving the European Central Bank’s pivotal role unchanged.

More generally, fundamental uncertainty surrounding concepts at the core of the economy, and therefore demand management, has emerged. Monetary policy has to navigate without full knowledge of what the post-crisis ‘new normal’ is going to be.

In light of these considerations, we recommend that the ECB should update its definition of price stability to target core inflation around two percent per year (allowing a tolerance band on either side of the two percent target), on average, over a longer time horizon.

Compared to other proposals (such as increasing the targeted inflation level or price-level targeting), our recommendation has the advantage of not departing drastically from the current inflation target and is therefore easier to communicate.

In our view, monetary policy should not target financial stability. Other more targeted (and country-specific) tools should be deployed to avoid the build-up of financial stability risks. Closer coordination with national macroprudential authorities and greater harmonisation in the use of macroprudential policies are however strongly recommended, as it is now acknowledged that financial and monetary policies are closely interlinked.

Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in times of Next Generation EU

Could Next Generation EU enable a better coordination of monetary and fiscal policy

Speakers: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Grégory Claeys and Hans Vijlbrief Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 20, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Jan
27
16:00

In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB's strategy review

The ECB is reviewing its monetary policy strategy. How to ensure monetary policy is fit for purpose in a fast changing world?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Philip Lane, Reza Moghadam and Erik F. Nielsen Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article Download PDF
 

Parliamentary Testimony

European Parliament

Monetary Policy in the times of corona: many unknown unknowns

Testimony to the European Parliament on monetary policy.

By: Maria Demertzis and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: December 21, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

How to minimise the impact of the coronavirus on the economy

COVID-19 is a global killer. Austerity needs to succumb.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 2, 2020
Read article More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Steering the boat towards an unknown destination

Shocks pass, but change remains a constant. We need to start focusing on permanent changes in the economy and how to adapt to them.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 25, 2020
Read article Download PDF
 

External Publication

European Parliament

Monetary policy in the time of COVID-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has come to characterise the European economy. We explore how this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making and the long-run challenges the ECB faces.

By: Maria Demertzis and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: November 12, 2020
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

Growth uncertainty, European Central Bank intervention and the Italian debt

European Central Bank intervention provides a buffer against the uncertainty faced by European Union economies in the face of COVID-19. For the time being, this intervention has alleviated concern about Italy's debt, but without it Italy is vulnerable to a debt crisis.

By: Andrea Consiglio and Stavros Zenios Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 28, 2020
Read article Download PDF
 

External Publication

How Can the European Parliament Better Oversee the European Central Bank?

This paper, written at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, assesses how the European Parliament holds the European Central Bank accountable. The same exercise is done for the Bank of Japan, in order to identify possible lessons for the ECB and the European Parliament.

By: Grégory Claeys and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: September 23, 2020
Read about event
 

Past Event

Past Event

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2020 - Day 1

The Annual Meetings are Bruegel's flagship event which gathers high-level speakers to discuss the economic topics that affect Europe and the world.

Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 1, 2020
Read article Download PDF
 

Policy Contribution

Is the COVID-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?

The euro never challenged the US dollar, and its international status declined with the euro crisis. Faced with a US administration willing to use its hegemonic currency to extend its domestic policies beyond its borders, Europe is reflecting on how to promote it currency on the global stage to ensure its autonomy. But promoting a more prominent role for the euro is difficult and involves far-reaching changes to the fabric of the monetary union.

By: Grégory Claeys and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: June 5, 2020
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

The Independence of the Central Bank at Risk

The ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court (GFCC) of May 5 on the ECB’s monetary policy affects not only the relation of Germany to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ) but also the constitutional foundations of monetary policy.

By: Peter Bofinger, Martin Hellwig, Michael Hüther, Monika Schnitzer, Moritz Schularick and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 2, 2020
Read article Download PDF
 

Policy Contribution

COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies

COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large negative impact on these countries’ fiscal accounts, and the related solvency issues, worsening conditions for these countries’ external funding are a major challenge.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Elina Ribakova Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: May 28, 2020
Load more posts