Download publication

External Publication

Analysis of development in EU capital flows in the global context

The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, aims to analyse capital movements in the European Union in a global context.

By: , , , , and Date: January 15, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

This material was originally published in a study commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union. The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Commission. The study is available on the European Commission’s webpage. ©European Union, 2017

The aim of this report is to analyse capital movements in the European Union in a global context. The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. Free movement of capital can enhance welfare if it channels savings towards productive use, but in crisis times, reliance on capital flows can also be a source of vulnerability if those flows transmit shocks across borders and disrupt local financial systems, with far-reaching spillovers into the real economy.

The first two sections are devoted to the monitoring of developments in international capital flows, cross-border financial positions and exchange rates and an analysis of global capital flows.

Section 2 presents trends from a global perspective, focusing on the large economies and groups of countries that are decisive for the overall picture. The authors combine up-to-date evidence from balance-of-payments statistics concerning transactions and stocks of financial assets with an analysis of policy developments and current events. Special attention is paid to potential repercussions from major recent political events, such as the UK’s Brexit referendum and the US presidential election, to the effects of monetary policy in various jurisdictions.

Patterns in the banking sector are analysed, with a comparison of countries in terms of their openness to capital flows, using established indicators of financial restrictions and focus on the evolution of Chinese FDI in the EU in recent years.

Section 3 focuses on Europe. Continuing to focus on the euro area because of its unique characteristics, the authors also pay more attention to non-euro area EU countries. However, instead of reporting data for all 28 EU Member States, they combine countries into five groups (euro-area creditors, the Benelux countries, euro-area debtors, northern Europe, and central and eastern Europe) to facilitate the recognition of key tendencies across the EU. This research also show data separately for France and Italy, which have specific characteristics that make them difficult to group with other countries. The authors analyse the different capital flow patterns and developments in international investment positions, including their compositions.

Finally, section 4 presents the results of our in-depth analysis, which this year focuses on the resolution of non-performing loans (NPLs), in particular on the development of secondary markets for distressed assets in the EU. The main motive behind this study is the fact that the EU banking sector currently needs to address a €1 trillion stock of NPLs. This type of secondary market for loans is currently under-developed compared to the size of the NPL problem in Europe, and also compared to other jurisdictions. Developing a market for asset transfers is therefore essential to respond to this immediate priority of working out distressed loans. Such an initiative would also contribute to a broader re-balancing between banks and capital markets that is necessary in Europe.

Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

Europe should not neglect its capital markets union

The European Union’s capital markets remain very underdeveloped compared to the United States. The market for equity, as measured as the size of the total market capitalisation of listed domestic firms relative to GDP, is much larger in the US and in Japan than in Europe.

By: Maria Demertzis, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: June 7, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Confronting the risks: corporate debt in the wake of the pandemic

As European economies emerge from lockdowns, it is becoming clearer that corporate debt has reached critical levels. A new French scheme, in which the state guarantees portfolios of subordinated debt, shows how financial support could be targeted better.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: April 28, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

The idea of Europe: more than a feeling?

What can 70 years of news(paper articles) and how we talk about 'Europe' tell us about pan-European identity? Is there even such a thing as a European public sphere?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 16, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Working Paper

Interest in European matters: a glass three-quarters full?

Everything that increases the interest of European citizens in the EU, independently of whether it has a critical or a supportive character, will serve to move the EU closer to its citizens.

By: Francesco Papadia, Enrico Bergamini, Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol and Giuseppe Porcaro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 23, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Working Paper

Talking about Europe: exploring 70 years of news archives

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of Europe as reflected in European media.

By: Enrico Bergamini and Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 2, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Mobilising equity finance for Europe’s recapitalisation challenge

At this event we will discuss what sources of equity finance can help Europe emerge from the recession.

Speakers: Alexander Lehmann, Thomas Wieser, Laurent Zylberberg, James Chew and Katja Langenbucher Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 9, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Can the gap in the Europe’s internal market for banking services be bridged?

The European Union has made significant progress to a more unified banking market but frictions remain between euro and non-euro countries. Without a coordinated approach to remaining issues in completing banking union, the gap could widen.

By: Thomas Wieser Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: December 7, 2020
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Can Europe build a Capital Markets Union without a strong European markets supervisor?

Invitation only event to discuss Europe’s Capital Markets Union.

Speakers: Stephane Boujnah, Jan Pieter Krahnen and Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: November 9, 2020
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Completing the banking union in the age of Next Generation EU

Invitation only event to discuss the banking union.

Speakers: Tuomas Saarenheimo and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 27, 2020
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Next Generation EU debt: how is it structured?

The impact of EU debt on the EU market of safe assets.

Speakers: Gert-Jan Koopman and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 22, 2020
Read article More by this author
 

Opinion

Europe’s recovery gamble

Next Generation EU, was rightly hailed as a major breakthrough: never before had the EU borrowed to finance expenditures, let alone transfers to member states. But the programme and its Recovery and Resilience Facility amount to a high-risk gamble.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 25, 2020
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author
 

Policy Contribution

Emerging Europe and the capital markets union

The European Union's capital market union needs a revamp because of Brexit and the deep recession, and to underpin the European Green Deal. In particular, equity capital in the countries of central and eastern Europe is underdeveloped. These countries should take measures to facilitate equity finance, accompanied by reform at EU level.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 17, 2020
Load more posts