Download publication

Book/Special report

Towards EU-MENA Shared Prosperity

Endowed with half of the world’s known oil and gas reserves, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has become a cornerstone of the global energy architecture. This architecture is currently undergoing a structural transformation, prompted by two different forces: decarbonisation policies and low-carbon technology advancements. This book seeks to address the following research question: are MENA oil-exporting countries equipped to prosper in times of global decarbonisation?

By: , , , , , and Date: August 17, 2017 Topic: Green economy

This book was prepared in collaboration with OCP Policy Centre

Endowed with half of the world’s known oil and gas reserves, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region became – particularly during the second half of the twentieth century – a cornerstone of the global energy architecture (Yergin, 1991, 2011; Maugeri, 2006). This architecture is currently undergoing a structural transformation, prompted by two different forces: decarbonisation policies and technological developments.

The adoption and quick entry into force of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015) marked a major step forward in global efforts to address global warming (IEA, 2016a). For the first time, developed and developing countries committed to act in order to limit global average temperature increase to well below 2°C, and to pursue efforts to further limit this to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This should reinforce strong decarbonisation measures already being undertaken in different parts of the world, such as in Europe.

Meanwhile, technological advancements have significantly increased the cost-competitiveness of low-carbon technologies such as solar and wind power generation, power storage technologies and electric vehicles (IEA, 2016b; IRENA, 2017). This has already started to reshape the global energy system, notably by giving a greater role to solar and wind in the power generation mix. Global energy outlooks (BP, 2017; EIA, 2017; IEA, 2016a) generally see these trends as continuing in the future. Some outlooks even see these trends further accelerating, leading to a peak in global oil demand in the 2020s (BNEF, 2016; Carbon Tracker, 2017; WEC, 2016).

By transforming the global energy architecture, international decarbonisation policies and technological advancements could have an impact on the world’s key oil and gas producing regions, such as the MENA.

Surprisingly, the energy literature presents no comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of the global energy transformation on this region. This paper seeks to fill this gap by investigating the following research question: are MENA oil-exporting countries equipped to prosper in times of global decarbonisation?

We begin with an analysis of the macroeconomic context of the MENA region, showing the persistent over-reliance of MENA oil exporters on the oil rent. The political economy factors standing behind the lack of economic diversification in these countries are then analysed, particularly through the analytical lens of the Rentier State Theory (RST).

By proposing a scenario-based analysis, we then illustrate the potential impact of global decarbonisation on MENA oil exporters. This allows us to illustrate the incompatibility of current MENA oil exporters’ macroeconomic models with a global decarbonisation pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement. Finally, we argue that MENA oil exporters should consider economic diversification as a structural pathway to be pursued in order to ensure their future economic and political stability, even in a decarbonising world.

Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

Can Europe survive painlessly without Russian gas?

If Russian gas stops flowing, measures to replace supply won’t be enough. The European Union will need to curb demand, implying difficult and costly decisions.

By: Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Green economy Date: January 27, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

In the electric vehicle race, China coming first

China is not only a producer and consumer of EVs, but also of the battery components on which they depend.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Green economy Date: January 26, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Where is Biden's climate policy?

A year after his inauguration, what has President Biden really achieved on climate?

Speakers: Samantha Gross, Dan Lashof, Michael Mehling and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Green economy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 25, 2022
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

Decarbonisation of the energy system

Our analysis highlights that the current national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of EU countries are insufficient to achieve a cost-efficient pathway to EU-wide climate neutrality by 2050.

By: Georg Zachmann, Franziska Holz, Claudia Kemfert, Ben McWilliams, Frank Meissner, Alexander Roth and Robin Sogalla Topic: Green economy Date: January 13, 2022
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

How an open climate club can generate carbon dividends for the poor

The German-led G7 can accelerate decarbonisation while tackling climate justice.

By: Andreas Goldthau and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Green economy Date: January 11, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

What the EU climate package has to overcome in 2022

An overview of the EU climate package to be negotiated in 2022.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Green economy Date: January 4, 2022
Read article More on this topic
 

External Publication

Sustainability transition and the European Green Deal: A macro-dynamic perspective

Report of the results of work carried out at ETC/WMGE on Green economy transition: Macroeconomic analytical framework in 2020 and 2021.

By: Nicolò Barbieri, Ilaria Beretta, Valeria Costantini, Alessio D’Amato, Marianna Gilli, Giovanni Marin, Massimiliano Mazzanti, Simone Tagliapietra, Roberto Zoboli,, Mariangela Zoli, Susanna Paleari, Andrea M. Bassi and Stefan Ulrich Speck Topic: Green economy Date: January 3, 2022
Read article
 

Blog Post

European governanceInclusive growth

12 Charts for 21

A selection of charts from Bruegel’s weekly newsletter, analysis of the year and what it meant for the economy in Europe and the world.

By: Hèctor Badenes, Henry Naylor, Giuseppe Porcaro and Yuyun Zhan Topic: Banking and capital markets, Digital economy and innovation, European governance, Global economy and trade, Green economy, Inclusive growth, Macroeconomic policy Date: December 21, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

How serious is Europe’s natural gas storage shortfall?

Europe may not have enough natural gas in storage for the coming winter; close monitoring of the situation will be essential.

By: Georg Zachmann, Ben McWilliams and Giovanni Sgaravatti Topic: Green economy Date: December 21, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Inflation ideology: camp permanent or camp temporary?

Policy focus should be on tackling uncertainties by being able to tackle as many scenarios as possible.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: December 9, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

External Publication

Europe's path to net-zero

Fostering the industrial component of the European Green Deal: key principles and policy options.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Green economy Date: December 3, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

European Green Deal beyond the Brussels climate bubble

How can the European Green Deal be implemented beyond Brussels?

Speakers: Maciej Bukowski, Sarah Coupechoux, Zsolt Darvas, Susi Dennison, Michal Horvath, Lara Lázaro, Marie Le Mouel, Michael Losch, Giulia Novati, Davide Panzeri, Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, Nolan Theisen, Shahin Vallée, Marc Vanheukelen and Georg Zachmann Topic: Green economy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: December 2, 2021
Load more posts