Download publication

Policy Contribution

Brexit and the European financial system

Brexit will lead to a partial migration of financial firms from London to the EU27. This Policy Contribution provides a comparison between London and four major cities that will host most of the new EU27 wholesale market: Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam. It gives a detailed picture of the wholesale markets, the largest players in these markets and the underlying clearing infrastructure. It also provides data on professional services and innovation.

By: , , and Date: February 9, 2017 Topic: Banking and capital markets

London is an international financial centre, serving European and global clients. A hard Brexit would lead to a partial migration of financial firms from London to the EU27 (EU minus UK) to ensure they can continue to serve their EU27 clients.

Four major cities will host most of the new EU27 wholesale markets: Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam. These cities have far fewer people employed in finance than London. Moreover, they host the European headquarters of fewer large companies. The partial migration of financial firms will thus have a major impact on these cities and their infrastructures.

Banks are the key players in wholesale markets. United States and Swiss investment banks, together with one large German and three large French banks, will make up the core of the new EU27 wholesale markets. Some Dutch, Italian and Spanish banks are in the second tier.

The forex, securities and derivatives trading markets are now in London. We map the current, limited market share of the four major cities that might host the EU27 client business. The expected migration of financial trading will lead to a large increase in trading capacity (eg bank trading floors).

Clearing is the backbone of modern financial markets. A comparative overview of clearing facilities in the EU27 shows that Germany and France have some clearing capacity, but this will need to be expanded. The ownership of clearing is often intertwined with stock exchanges. Were the planned LSE-Deutsche Börse merger to go ahead, LSE would sell the Paris subsidiary of its clearinghouse.

In terms of legal systems, there is an expectation that trading activities will be able to continue under English contract law, also in the EU27. A particular challenge is to develop FinTech (financial technology) in the EU27, as this innovative part of the market is currently based in London.

We estimate that some 30,000 jobs might move from London to the EU27. This will put pressure on the facilities (infrastructure, offices, residential housing) in the recipient cities. The more the European Union market for financial services is integrated, the less need there will be for financial firms to move to one location, reducing the pressure for all facilities to be in one city (see Sapir et al, 2017, which is a companion piece to this paper).

Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Better sustainability data is still needed to accelerate the low-carbon transition in capital markets

Investors need more trustworthy sustainability data. Regulators should leave space for better products to emerge, while remaining alert to well-known patterns of misconduct in capital markets.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: October 18, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

External Publication

Brexit and European finance: Prolonged limbo

It will take longer than many had anticipated for the dust to settle on the post-Brexit financial landscape and its respective implications for the EU and the UK.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: September 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Banks post-Brexit: regulatory divergence or parallel tracks?

Post-Brexit UK bank regulation is not likely to compromise on international standards, but will place greater emphasis on competition, making close UK-EU dialogue essential.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: July 6, 2021
Read article Download PDF More by this author
 

External Publication

European Parliament

UK banks in international markets

Implications of UK-euro area divergence in regulation and supervisory practice

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Banking and capital markets, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: June 25, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

Europe should not neglect its capital markets union

The European Union’s capital markets remain very underdeveloped compared to the United States. The market for equity, as measured as the size of the total market capitalisation of listed domestic firms relative to GDP, is much larger in the US and in Japan than in Europe.

By: Maria Demertzis, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: June 7, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Confronting the risks: corporate debt in the wake of the pandemic

As European economies emerge from lockdowns, it is becoming clearer that corporate debt has reached critical levels. A new French scheme, in which the state guarantees portfolios of subordinated debt, shows how financial support could be targeted better.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: April 28, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

New EU insolvency rules could underpin business rescue in the COVID-19 aftermath

Corporate bankruptcies are set to rise in the context of COVID-19. EU countries should speed up adoption of recent insolvency reforms and, in addition, offer consistent treatment to restructuring finance.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: March 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Financial services: The Brexit dust begins to settle

The phase of greatest Brexit-related uncertainty for the European financial sector ended on 1 January. Although too early to discern more than the broadest contours of the future landscape, it is increasingly apparent that London will be less dominant than before.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: March 11, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

The economics of biodiversity

Join us in conversation with Sir Partha Dasgupta and Frans Timmermans to mark the publication of The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review

Speakers: Sir Partha Dasgupta, Maria Demertzis, Frans Timmermans and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Green economy Date: March 3, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Working Paper

COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies

This paper assesses COVID-19 credit-support programmes in five of the largest European economies, and examines how countries have dealt with trade-offs raised by the programmes.

By: Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia and Nicolas Véron Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: February 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

The double irony of the new UK-EU trade relationship

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement signed between the European Union and the United Kingdom goes against six decades of UK efforts to avoid being economically disadvantaged in Europe. Tracking the evolution of the EU-UK relationship over the last 60 years can help in understanding this.

By: André Sapir Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: January 12, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Completing the banking union in the age of Next Generation EU

Invitation only event to discuss the banking union.

Speakers: Tuomas Saarenheimo and Nicolas Véron Topic: Banking and capital markets Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 27, 2020
Load more posts