Blog Post

Income inequality boosted Trump vote

Our early econometric analysis shows that Donald Trump performed more strongly in states with higher income inequality. He also did better in states with a higher share of less-educated, older, US-born and non-Hispanic voters.

By: , and Date: November 9, 2016 Topic: Global economy and trade

Did the level of income inequity influence voters in the 2016 US presidential election? To answer this question, we analysed the currently available results to uncover the factors influencing Trump’s share of the vote.

Recent surveys and analyses (for example the Bloomberg report here) show that the share of Trump votes was higher in counties with a higher share of white, middle-income, US-born, rural and less-educated voters. In our econometric regressions we control for some of these factors to see if income inequality has additional explanatory power. Using state-level data, we find that in all variants of our regressions income inequality has a positive and statistically significant parameter estimate (see table below). This means that more unequal states were more likely to vote for Trump.

Since voting behaviour is rather persistent in the US, our dependent variable is the change of the share of Republican candidate votes in 2016 compared to the average in the past three elections, (ie the average of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections). Some of the explanatory variables are highly correlated, like the share of Hispanic and the share of foreign born population, so we estimated different versions of the model in which we include only one of the highly correlated variables.

We find that a swing towards the Republicans was stronger in states where:

  • Income inequality is higher (measured as the Gini coefficient),
  • The Hispanic share of the population is lower,
  • The foreign-born share of the population is lower,
  • The share of the population that is young (19-44) is lower and the share of older people (45+) is higher,
  • The share of the population with at most a high school degree is higher and the share of the population with at least some college education is lower.

On the other hand, when trying to explain the shift to Donald Trump compared with the previous three Republican candidates, our analysis does not find statistically significant effects from gender and the African-American share of the population.

We will refine our calculations by using county-level data later, but these state-level findings already indicate an important role for income inequality in predicting votes for Trump. In fact, our regression results for the determinants of Trump votes are rather similar to the determinants of ‘leave’ votes in the United Kingdom’s June 2016 Brexit referendum, as one of us analysed here. While our results should be interpreted carefully, not least because both main US presidential candidates have certain characteristics which made them unpopular in the eyes of certain segments of the society, our findings are not against the interpretation that the ‘losers’ of globalisation cast protest votes against the status quo.

trump-and-inequality-table

Notes: The dependent variable is the difference between the share of votes for Donald Trump minus the average share of votes for the Republican candidate in the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections.  t statistics in parentheses, statistical significance: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. Data collected at 11.00CET on 9/11/2016.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

External Publication

L’Union européenne et les États-Unis, un an après

Après une année troublée par Kaboul et AUKUS, qu'avons-nous retenu de l'an I de la présidence Biden ? Maria Demertzis revient sur les évènements marquants de l'année 2021 pour la relation entre les États-Unis et l'Union européenne.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Global economy and trade Date: December 8, 2021
Read article
 

Blog Post

Inclusive growth

The triple constraint on artificial-intelligence advancement in Europe

Skills, data and financing shortcomings constrain artificial-intelligence innovation in Europe.

By: Mia Hoffmann and Laura Nurski Topic: Digital economy and innovation, Inclusive growth Date: December 6, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

What to make of the EU-US deal on steel and aluminium?

While deeply disappointing that the surprise deal maintains aluminium and steel tariffs against the EU beyond a modest quota, it alleviates a major irritant in transatlantic relations and contains interesting and innovative features relating to climate policy and to dispute settlement under WTO rules.

By: Uri Dadush Topic: Global economy and trade Date: November 4, 2021
Read article
 

Blog Post

European governanceInclusive growth

The socioeconomic effects of COVID-19 on women

The pandemic has disproportionately affected women both professionally and at home. Although the gender gap in labour force participation since the onset of the pandemic hasn't worsened, policy still needs to tackle existing gender gaps, which for some EU countries are very substantive.

By: Maria Demertzis and Mia Hoffmann Topic: European governance, Inclusive growth Date: November 3, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

Strong, balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth? The G20 and the pandemic

The G20 is not doing enough to support strong, balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth in the wake of COVID-19, with the poorest countries left behind by the recovery.

By: Suman Bery and Pauline Weil Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 29, 2021
Read article Download PDF
 

Parliamentary Testimony

European ParliamentInclusive growth

Understanding the socioeconomic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women

Testimony before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) on the consequences of the pandemic on women.

By: Maria Demertzis and Mia Hoffmann Topic: European Parliament, Inclusive growth, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 27, 2021
Read article
 

External Publication

European Parliament

Tailoring prudential policy to bank size: the application of proportionality in the US and euro area

In-depth analysis prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

By: Alexander Lehmann and Nicolas Véron Topic: Banking and capital markets, European Parliament, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 14, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

Opinion

European governance

The inconsistency in global strategic relations

All of this talk on strategic retrenchment and autonomy is the language of escalation, not of appeasement and collaboration.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European governance, Global economy and trade Date: October 13, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

Blog Post

Inclusive growth

Making antitrust work for, not against, gig workers and the self-employed

Policymakers should act to deal with labour-market concentration trends that potentially harm workers, especially gig workers and the self-employed.

By: Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Digital economy and innovation, Inclusive growth Date: October 11, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Is tech redefining the workplace for women?

Laura Nurski, Sabine Theresia Köszegi and Giuseppe Porcaro explore the relationship between artificial intelligence and job transformation and ask whether the impact differs by gender.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Digital economy and innovation, Inclusive growth Date: October 6, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

The pandemic’s uncertain impact on productivity

The pandemic has certainly permanently affected our way of working. Whether this is for the better remains to be seen.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: September 28, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Germany’s foreign economic policy: four essential steps

Germany and the EU need to develop a strong and proactive agenda to manage foreign economic relations, which are essential for German and European prosperity.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: September 23, 2021
Load more posts