Fiscal capacity to support large banks

This Policy Contribution outlines a fiscal cost scenario for the recapitalisation of large banks
during a severe systemic crisis.

Publishing date: 03 October 2016
Authors: Pia Hüttl Dirk Schoenmaker

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During the global financial crisis and subsequent euro-debt crisis, the fiscal resources of some countries appeared to be insufficient to support their banking systems. These countries needed outside support to stabilise their banking systems and thereby their wider economies.

This Policy Contribution assesses the potential fiscal costs of recapitalising large banks. Based on past financial crises, we estimate that the cost to recapitalise an individual bank amounts to 4.5 percent of its total assets. During a severe crisis, a country might have to recapitalise up to three of its large systemic banks. We assume that bail-in of private investors is not fully possible during a systemic crisis.

Our empirical findings suggest that large countries, such as the United States, China and Japan, can still provide credible fiscal backstops to their large systemic banks. In the euro area, the potential fiscal costs are unevenly distributed and range from 4 to 12 percent of GDP. Differences in the strengths of the fiscal backstops in euro-area countries contribute to divergences in financing conditions across the banking union.

To counter this fragmentation, we propose that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) could be used as a fiscal backstop to recapitalise systemically important banks directly within the banking union, in the case of a severe systemic crisis. But this would be only a last resort, after other tools such as bail-in have been used to the maximum extent possible. The governance of the ESM should be reconsidered, to ensure swift and clear application in times of crisis.

About the authors

Pia Hüttl

Pia Hüttl is an Austrian citizen and joined Bruegel as an Affiliate Fellow in 2015. Her research interests include macroeconomics, financial economics and monetary policy as well as European political economy.

Prior to this, Pia worked as Research Assistant for Bruegel, and as a Trainee in the Monetary Policy Division of the European Central Bank. Also, she worked as a Blue Book Stagiaire in the Monetary policy, Exchange rate policy of the euro area, ERM II and Euro adoption Unit in DG Ecfin of the European Commission.

She holds a Bachelor's degree in European Economics and a Master's degree in International Economics from the University of Rome Tor Vergata. She also obtained a Master's degree in European Political Economy from the London School of Economics, with a thesis on Current Account imbalances in the Euro area and the role of financial integration.

Pia is currently pursuing a PhD in Economics at the Humboldt University in Berlin.

She is fluent in German, Italian and English, and has good notions of French.

Declaration of interests 2015

Declaration of interests 2016

Declaration of interests 2017
Dirk Schoenmaker

Dirk Schoenmaker is a Non-Resident Fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Banking and Finance at Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and a Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Research (CEPR). He has published in the areas of sustainable finance, central banking, financial supervision and stability and European financial integration.

Dirk is author of ‘Governance of International Banking: The Financial Trilemma’ (Oxford University Press) and co-author of the textbooks ‘Financial Markets and Institutions: A European perspective’ (Cambridge University Press) and ‘Principles of Sustainable Finance’ (Oxford University Press). He earned his PhD in economics at the London School of Economics.

Before joining RSM, Dirk was Dean of the Duisenberg school of finance from 2009 to 2015. From 1998 to 2008, he served at the Netherlands Ministry of Finance. In the 1990s, he served at the Bank of England. He is a regular consultant for the IMF, the OECD and the European Commission.