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External Publication

Currency crises in post-Soviet economies — a never ending story?

This paper offers an updated and comprehensive analysis of the currency crises in Russia and the former Soviet Union economies.

By: Date: October 18, 2016 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This paper is published in the Russian Journal of EconomicsVolume 2, Issue 3, September 2016, Pages 302–326.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors.

The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) economies’ extreme macroeconomic fragility (a legacy of past crises), numerous microeconomic rigidities and structural distortions in addition to governmental deficits.

In addition, the Russian–Ukraine conflict dealt a heavy blow to both economies and their neighbors. Effective anti-crisis policies must aim at eliminating all deep-rooted causes of repeated financial and macroeconomic turbulence and must involve deep structural and institutional reforms in the entire region.

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Blog Post

Ukraine: trade reorientation from Russia to the EU

Over the past five years conflict has led to a deterioration of Russo-Ukrainian economic relations while ties with the EU have been deepened. This shift is evident in trade flows: the European Union has become Ukraine’s biggest trading partner, while China is poised to overtake Russia as its second. Natural gas imports from Russia, Ukraine’s prior Achilles heel, have been partially replaced by reverse deliveries from the EU and reduced as result of reform of the gas sector.

By: Marek Dabrowski, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Georg Zachmann Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 13, 2020
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Opinion

Disease, like poverty, does not stay at home

To fight the Covid-19 pandemic, best practice responses in Africa need to be implemented around international collaboration. These include the need to activate emergency operations centres, to establish a surge capacity in health systems, and to mitigate the economic and social consequences of the pandemic.

By: Yonas Adeto, Karim El Aynaoui, Thomas Gomart, Paolo Magri, Greg Mills, Karin von Hippel and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 8, 2020
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Opinion

A temporary, common fiscal stimulus to answer the mayhem of COVID-19

We are not in normal times and we have to surpass, albeit only for the duration of the COVID-19 shock, the hurdles that did not allow the euro-area to endow itself of a common fiscal policy.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 2, 2020
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Blog Post

COVID-19 and broken Collusion: the oil price collapse is one more warning for Russia

In the midst of the COVID-19 epidemic, the sharp collapse in the oil price has received little attention. Brent fell by 30% on 9 March, the largest fall since the 1991 Gulf War. The Russian ruble followed suit and its tumble highlights Russia’s continued dependence on resource extraction. The episode should be taken as a sign of things to come in a world where Russia’s main customers are going green.

By: Niclas Poitiers and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 19, 2020
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Blog Post

Three macroeconomic issues and Covid-19

COVID-19 raises a number of serious issues of a sanitary, social and economic nature. While recognizing the difficulty of giving definitive answers at this early stage, we attempt to shed light on three critical macroeconomic topics.

By: Leonardo Cadamuro and Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 10, 2020
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Podcast

Podcast

From Brussels with love? Russia's economic dependence on the EU

Despite the political antagonism, the EU and Russia are not only geographically, but also economically, reliant on each other: European houses are heated using Russian natural gas and Russia is highly dependent on European investment. Therefore, should the EU develop closer political ties with Russia? How much leverage does the EU have when dealing with the Kremlin? This week, Nicholas Barrett is joined by Niclas Poitiers and Marta Domínguez-Jímenez to discuss European foreign direct investment in Russia.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 19, 2020
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Policy Contribution

FDI another day: Russian reliance on European investment

Most foreign direct investment into Russia originates in the European Union: European investors own between 55 percent and 75 percent of Russian FDI stock. This points to a Russian dependence on European investment, making the EU paramount for Russian medium-term growth. Even if we consider ‘phantom’ FDI that transits through Europe, the EU remains the primary investor in Russia. Most phantom FDI into Russia is believed to originate from Russia itself and thus is by construction not foreign.

By: Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 17, 2020
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Opinion

Watch out for China’s currency in case of no-deal scenario

The U.S. and China’s negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely deal, but was still hoping for it. Against this backdrop, the investors have reacted negatively to the increased likelihood of not reaching a deal on December 15. If this is the case, the U.S. will apply additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The obvious question to address, thus, is, what can happen to China under such a scenario?

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: December 11, 2019
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Policy Contribution

The European Union-Russia-China energy triangle

Concern is growing in the European Union that a rapprochement between Russia and China could have negative implications for the EU.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: December 9, 2019
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Policy Contribution

European Parliament

The next generation of digital currencies: in search of stability

Recent developments have re-opened the debate on the future of money. This Policy Contribution discusses two aspects: the implications of the rise of global private stablecoins, such as Facebook's Libra, and the role that public central bank digital currencies could play.

By: Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis Topic: European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: December 2, 2019
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Working Paper

How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union

China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China’s ties with Russia, indicate that China seems to have become more of a competitor to the European Union on Russia’s market. Competition over investment and lending is more limited, but the situation could change rapidly with China and Russia giving clear signs of a stronger than ever strategic partnership.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 18, 2019
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Past Event

Past Event

Russian economy at the crossroads: how to boost long-term growth?

Russia’s convergence to advanced economy income levels has stalled. Long-term growth prospects are still obstructed by sluggish productivity growth, low capital accumulation and shrinking labour inputs. The new government has articulated a set of ambitious policy objectives for the next six years. But are additional reforms necessary to further boost productivity and investments in line with government targets?

Speakers: Marek Dabrowski, Markus Ederer, Elena Flores, Alexander Larionov, Dmitry Polevoy, Niclas Poitiers and Alexey Vedev Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Kadashevskaya Naberezhnaya, 14, Moscow, Russia, 115035 Date: November 7, 2019
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