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Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context (2nd report)

The purpose of our report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context.

By: , , , and Date: January 28, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This report analyses capital movements in Europe in a global context. Capital outflows from the EU as a whole declined in recent quarters and there was even a net inflow in 2015Q1, driven by both euro-area and non-euro area countries.

Some emerging countries experienced capital outflows, which are likely related to expectations about tightening monetary policies in the United States. Our econometric results confirm the importance of global factors in driving capital flows to emerging countries, but also show that FDI flows are rather insensitive in contrast to portfolio and other investment flows.

Following a period of more than two decades of large-scale foreign exchange reserve accumulation by primarily emerging-country central banks, reserves started to decline, which is a rather marked trend-change and can lead to interest rate increases in advanced countries and offset the impacts of quantitative easing policies.

At the EU’s border, Ukraine managed to attract some capital in recent months, but Russia continues to display persistent net capital outflows. We report a remarkable similarity between capital flows in central and eastern European member states and euro area periphery countries during the past twelve years.

We analyse the bilateral patterns of capital flows to Greece and Cyprus in the context of their respective crises. Intra-euro area financial integration continues to be lower than it was in the pre-crisis period.Our econometric analysis shows the dis-anchoring of EU countries’ domestic savings and investments in the pre-crisis period, which has reversed in the past six years.

While the euro-area aggregate financial cycle fluctuated rather moderately, a major divergence of domestic financial cycles can be observed within the euro area, which was very much linked to capital flows. The credit cycles for the UK, Denmark and Sweden are found to have been close to the euro-area cycle. We analyse the challenges faced by macro-prudential policy in the euro area and suggest improvements.

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Policy Contribution

Europe should not neglect its capital markets union

The European Union’s capital markets remain very underdeveloped compared to the United States. The market for equity, as measured as the size of the total market capitalisation of listed domestic firms relative to GDP, is much larger in the US and in Japan than in Europe.

By: Maria Demertzis, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: June 7, 2021
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Blog Post

Confronting the risks: corporate debt in the wake of the pandemic

As European economies emerge from lockdowns, it is becoming clearer that corporate debt has reached critical levels. A new French scheme, in which the state guarantees portfolios of subordinated debt, shows how financial support could be targeted better.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: April 28, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

Completing the banking union in the age of Next Generation EU

Invitation only event to discuss the banking union.

Speakers: Tuomas Saarenheimo and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 27, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

Next Generation EU debt: how is it structured?

The impact of EU debt on the EU market of safe assets.

Speakers: Gert-Jan Koopman and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 22, 2020
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Policy Contribution

Emerging Europe and the capital markets union

The European Union's capital market union needs a revamp because of Brexit and the deep recession, and to underpin the European Green Deal. In particular, equity capital in the countries of central and eastern Europe is underdeveloped. These countries should take measures to facilitate equity finance, accompanied by reform at EU level.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 17, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2020 - Day 2

Second day of Bruegel Annual Meetings.

Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 2, 2020
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Blog Post

Boosting the resilience of Europe’s financial system in the coronavirus crisis

Europe has a heavily bank-based financial structure, but bank-based financial structures are associated with higher systemic risk than market-based financial structures. The higher level of systemic risk in Europe suggests caution when pursuing policies that stimulate risk taking and debt creation by banks, especially in the wake of COVID-19. Priority should be given to financial diversification and equity finance.

By: Joost Bats, Aerdt Houben and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 17, 2020
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External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

This report presents an overview of the recent trends of capital flows, focused especially on the past year. It provides a detailed analysis at the global level and at the European Union level.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez, Konstantinos Efstathiou and Tanja Linta Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 16, 2020
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Blog Post

Developing resilient bail-in capital

Europe’s largest banks have made progress in issuing bail-inable securities that shelter taxpayers from bank failures. But the now-finalised revision of the bank resolution directive and a new policy of the SRB will make requirements to issue such securities more onerous for other banks. In order to strengthen banking-system resilience, EU capital-market regulation should facilitate exposures of long-term institutional investors.

By: Bruegel and Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: April 29, 2019
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Policy Contribution

Equity finance and capital market integration in Europe

Facilitating the financing of European companies through external equity is a central ambition of European Union financial regulation, including in the European Commission’s capital markets union agenda. Against this background, the authors examine the present use of external equity by EU companies, the roles of listings on public markets, and the regulatory impediments in national laws. They assess to what extent EU market integration has overcome the crucial obstacle of shallow local capital markets.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo and Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 17, 2019
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External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, aims to analyse capital movements in the European Union in a global context.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, Konstantinos Efstathiou, Inês Goncalves Raposo, Alexander Lehmann and David Pichler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 17, 2019
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Blog Post

Could Italian private wealth compensate for flight of foreign bond-holders?

Italy’s deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini is "convinced" that Italians can help out their government, in the face of a widening yield spread between German and Italian government bonds. The authors assess the feasibility of recourse to household wealth in Italy, and estimate the relative importance of foreign debt-holders in the upcoming bond redemptions.

By: Jan Mazza and Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 19, 2018
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