Blog Post

Too early to celebrate: What markets tell us about the credibility of the Paris climate agreement

The price of carbon emissions has decreased markedly since the first draft of the Paris Agreement has been released. The decrease in the price of futures is the largest observed over the last two months.

By: , and Date: December 15, 2015 Topic: Green economy

The Paris Climate Conference COP21 has just ended and the Parties have found an agreement, approving the final draft of the Paris Agreement on Saturday morning. We would expect that a strong agreement should eventually lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so as to reach the climate goals of limiting temperature increases to below 2°C. One of the main instrument that national and European governments have to trigger the necessary investments in renewables and green energy is the price of CO2 emissions. In the EU, this price is given by the emission trading system (ETS). A deal that would strengthen European efforts to limit GHG emissions should lead to an increase in prices for ETS certificates as companies want to buy permissions for future emissions at the currently low price.

The figure below shows the price of ETS certificates. The price of carbon emissions has decreased markedly since the first draft of the Paris Agreement has been released. The decrease in the price of futures is the largest observed over the last two months.  This suggests that companies do not believe that more constraints will be put on them in the future as a result of the deal. On the contrary, market participants take the deal as a signal that there will be less reductions in available certificates in the future. Overall, this suggest that the credibility of the climate deal is still low. To trigger significant private investment in renewable energy, European policy makers will have to step up their game and increase the credibility of the governance of their CO2 reduction goals.

ChartWeek15_12_15


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Read article More on this topic
 

External Publication

How green are electric vehicles?

A policy paper dissecting existing life cycle assessments of electric vehicles and identifying potential future trends in the different stages of the vehicle life cycle, especially for batteries.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Victor Vorsatz Topic: Green economy Date: October 26, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Oct
27
12:00

Can COP26 save the planet?

In this episode of the Sound of Economics Live Italy's Minister for Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani outlines his priorities for the upcoming COP Summit.

Speakers: Roberto Cingolani and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Green economy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More by this author
 

Opinion

European governance

Can EU fiscal rules jump on the green bandwagon?

By and large, setting a new green golden rule would be a useful addition to the existing EU fiscal framework.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European governance, Green economy, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 22, 2021
Read article
 

Opinion

COP26: why carbon pricing is crucial to China’s climate change pledges

China’s emissions trading scheme is a welcome but to reach its full potential, it needs to cover more of China’s emissions, go beyond the electricity sector and let prices reflect the true cost of carbon.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Junyu Tan Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 22, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

The contribution of hydrogen to European decarbonisation

What role will hydrogen play in Europe's decarbonisation?

Speakers: Alison Conboy, Matthias Deutsch, Ruud Kempener, Ben McWilliams and Andrea Pisano Topic: Green economy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 21, 2021
Read about event
 

Past Event

Past Event

Monetary policy in the time of climate change

How does climate change influence monetary policy in the eurozone? What potential monetary policy measures should be taken up to address climate risks?

Speakers: Cornelia Holthausen, Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Green economy, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 20, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Better sustainability data is still needed to accelerate the low-carbon transition in capital markets

Investors need more trustworthy sustainability data. Regulators should leave space for better products to emerge, while remaining alert to well-known patterns of misconduct in capital markets.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: October 18, 2021
Read article
 

Opinion

Xi’s pledge on financing coal plants overseas misses point

China’s domestic installation of coal-fired power plants continues at great pace.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 7, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

The only quick-fix to Europe’s energy price crisis is saving energy

The only thing Europe can quickly do to prevent a potentially difficult winter is to actively promote energy conservation in both the residential and industrial sectors.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Green economy Date: October 7, 2021
Read article
 

Opinion

Will China use climate change as a bargaining chip?

Beijing shows signs of changing tactics ahead of the COP26 conference.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 6, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

Letter: The lesson Europe should learn from the gas crisis

Europe’s gas supply security could more effectively be safeguarded by ensuring that unused alternatives are maintained.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Green economy Date: October 5, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Opinion

Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?

The ultimate answer to the question on whether climate change can be tackled without ditching economic growth depends on our willingness to step up climate action massively.

By: Klaas Lenaerts, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Green economy Date: September 27, 2021
Load more posts