Download publication

Policy Contribution

The harsh reality of Ukraine’s fiscal arithmetic

In this Policy Contribution Marek Dabrowski argues that Ukraine must accelerate and better manage its reform process so as to overcome fundamental weaknesses in its economy and finances.

By: Date: June 11, 2015 Topic: Global economy and trade

• Ukraine is struggling with both external aggression and the dramatically poor shape of its economy. The pace of political and institutional change has so far been too slow to prevent the deepening of the fiscal and balance-of-payments crises, while business confidence continues to be undermined.

• Unfortunately, the 2015 International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility programme repeats many weaknesses of the 2014 IMF Stand-by Arrangement: slow pace of fiscal adjustment especially in the two key areas of energy prices and pension entitlements, lack of a comprehensive structural and institutional reform vision, and insufficient external financing to close the expected balance-of-payments gap and allow Ukraine to return to debt sustainability in the long term.

• The reform process in Ukraine must be accelerated and better managed. A frontloaded fiscal adjustment is necessary to stabilise public finances and the balance-of-payments, and to bring inflation down. The international community, especially the European Union, should offer sufficient financial aid backed by strong conditionality, technical assistance and support to Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity.

Read article
 

Blog Post

The EU needs transparent oil data and enhanced coordination

The EU lacks the coordination structure and transparent data necessary to most effectively navigate an embargo on Russian oil.

By: Agata Łoskot-Strachota, Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: May 16, 2022
Read article
 

Blog Post

Now is not the time to confiscate Russia’s central bank reserves

The idea of confiscating the Bank of Russia’s frozen reserves is attractive to some, but at this stage in the Ukraine conflict confiscation would be counterproductive and likely illegal.

By: Nicolas Véron and Joshua Kirschenbaum Topic: Banking and capital markets, Global economy and trade Date: May 16, 2022
Read article Download PDF
 

Policy Contribution

European governance

Fiscal support and monetary vigilance: economic policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the European Union

Policymakers must think coherently about the joint implications of their actions, from sanctions on Russia to subsidies and transfers to their own citizens, and avoid taking measures that contradict each other. This is what we try to do in this Policy Contribution, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects of relevance for Europe.

By: Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: April 29, 2022
Read article Download PDF
 

Working Paper

Cutting Putin’s energy rent: ‘smart sanctioning’ Russian oil and gas

The most efficient way for Europe to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo, but the introduction of an import tariff that can be used flexibly to control the degree of economic pressure on Russia.

By: Ricardo Hausmann, Agata Łoskot-Strachota, Axel Ockenfels, Simone Tagliapietra, Ulrich Schetter, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: April 28, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

From viruses to wars: recent disruptions to global trade and value chains

How have events in recent years impacted global trade and value chains and how can we strengthen these against future disruptions?

Speakers: Dalia Marin, Adil Mohommad and André Sapir Topic: Global economy and trade Date: April 27, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Repurposing the peace dividend

The war in Ukraine has brought an end to a 60-year period in which Europe has enjoyed a peace dividend, an amount released by reducing defence expenditure to be invested in beneficial economic activities.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Global economy and trade Date: April 26, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

War in Ukraine: What is the effect on Central and Eastern Europe?

How is the war in Ukraine affecting the countries in the central and eastern parts of Europe, the countries that are closest to the ongoing conflict?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European governance Date: April 26, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

War in Ukraine: What is the effect on Central and Eastern Europe?

How is the war in Ukraine affecting the countries in the central and eastern parts of Europe, the countries that are closest to the ongoing conflict?

Speakers: Beata Javorcik and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European governance Date: April 26, 2022
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

A sanctions counter measure: gas payments to Russia in rubles

A requirement for gas to be paid for in rubles is a way for Russia to side-step central bank sanctions.

By: Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia Topic: Global economy and trade Date: April 19, 2022
Read article
 

Blog Post

The European Union should sanction Sberbank and other Russian banks

Sanctions on Sberbank and most other Russian banks should be imposed by the EU, without delay and at no major cost to either itself or like-minded countries, while it ponders an oil and gas ban.

By: Joshua Kirschenbaum and Nicolas Véron Topic: Banking and capital markets, Global economy and trade Date: April 15, 2022
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

The decoupling of Russia: European vulnerabilities in the high-tech sector

Although Russia bears the brunt of Western high-tech sanctions, the European Union will face challenges in sectors where it relies on Russian and Ukrainian commodities and technologies.

By: Monika Grzegorczyk, J. Scott Marcus, Niclas Poitiers and Pauline Weil Topic: Global economy and trade Date: April 12, 2022
Read article
 

Opinion

Cutting Putin’s energy rent: ‘smart sanctioning’ Russian oil and gas

Three ways Europe could limit Russian oil and gas revenues.

By: Axel Ockenfels, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: April 11, 2022
Load more posts