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External Publication

Follow what I do, and also what I say: Monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets

The objective of this paper is to assess empirically whether futures interest rates in Brazil react to changes in the SELIC rate and, especially, to different pieces of communication released by the BCB.

By: , and Date: April 26, 2015 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

We analyze how Brazilian financial markets, in particular futures interest rates, react to monetary policy both in terms of deeds, i.e. changes in the policy rate, and words, i.e. central bank communication. Using daily data from 2005 to 2014, we find that the futures interest rates react in the expected direction to both the central bank’s actions and words, namely futures rates do increase (decrease) after both an increase in the reference interest rate and a hawkish (dovish) communication by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB).

We also find that BCB words create more “noise”, since they generate an increased volatility of futures rates. Our analysis also reveals that monetary policy communication has increased its effectiveness – measured by its larger impact on future rates and a reduced volatility- after the 2008 international crisis. At the same time, the deeds became less relevant as the effect of the changes in the SELIC rate on future rates has declined since then.

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Opinion

The Independence of the Central Bank at Risk

The ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court (GFCC) of May 5 on the ECB’s monetary policy affects not only the relation of Germany to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ) but also the constitutional foundations of monetary policy.

By: Peter Bofinger, Martin Hellwig, Michael Hüther, Monika Schnitzer, Moritz Schularick and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 2, 2020
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Policy Contribution

COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies

COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large negative impact on these countries’ fiscal accounts, and the related solvency issues, worsening conditions for these countries’ external funding are a major challenge.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Elina Ribakova Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: May 28, 2020
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Opinion

The message in the ruling

The German Constitutional Court's ruling on the ECB's asset purchase programme is open to much criticism but it can hardly be blamed for raising an important question.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 12, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

The Sound of Economics Live: The macroeconomic policy response to the COVID-19 crisis

Which macroeconomic policy response is the best option to deal with the crisis currently unfolding and will ensure that the recovery will be as quick as possible?

Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Giuseppe Porcaro, Lucrezia Reichlin and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: March 31, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

CANCELLED: How adequate is the European toolbox to deal with financial stability risks in a low rate environment?

Bruegel is delighted to welcome the governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf. He will deliver a keynote address about how adequate the European toolbox is to tackle financial stability risks in a low rate environment. Following his speech, a panel of experts will further discuss the topic.

Speakers: Gabriel Makhlouf, Guntram B. Wolff and Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: March 31, 2020
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External Publication

Facing the lower bound: what will the ECB do in the next recession?

In responding to the global financial crisis, the ECB has pushed its monetary policy into unchartered territories . Today, it appears increasingly constrained by persistently low interest rates. This paper seeks to understand this challenge and assess whether its toolkit would allow the ECB to weather a European recession.

By: Aliénor Cameron, Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 27, 2020
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Blog Post

What should be done to reduce euro-area spreads?

Spreads are rising again in the euro-area at the worst possible time, when fiscal policy is needed to fight the coronavirus pandemic and the related economic shock. This blog post reviews the main options available to European policymakers, their feasibility and potential effectiveness to deal with this issue.

By: Grégory Claeys Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 18, 2020
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Opinion

The European coronavirus response must be a solution, not more stigma

Lagarde needs a different bazooka in responding to a natural disaster like COVID-19.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 18, 2020
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Opinion

A letter to Santa, the G7

The G7 should set an example of international cooperation and come out with a strong signal of unity and support for the euro-area. Only then will the cost of the crisis be temporary and manageable. This is our letter to Santa. I hope at least some -if not all -of these wishes can be fulfilled.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 17, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

What next for the financial services industry? A conversation with Philippe Donnet, Group CEO of Generali

At this event the Group CEO of Generali, Philippe Donnet, will discuss the latest developments in the financial services industry with Guntram Wolff, Director of Bruegel. 

Speakers: Philippe Donnet and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: February 18, 2020
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Policy Contribution

European Parliament

From climate change to cyber attacks: Incipient financial-stability risks for the euro area

The European Central Bank’s November 2019 Financial Stability Review highlighted the risks to growth in an environment of global uncertainty. On the whole, the ECB report is comprehensive and covers the main risks to euro-area financial stability, we highlight issues that deserve more attention.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: February 6, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

Take a chance on me: Sweden considers the Banking Union

This event will discuss if Sweden should join the European banking union and the general state of the union.

Speakers: Fredrik Bystedt, Elena Carletti, Maria Demertzis and Pawel Gąsiorowski Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 29, 2020
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