Blog Post

Chart of the Week: 54% of EU jobs at risk of computerisation

If we believe that technology will be able to overcome traditional hurdles among non-routine cognitive tasks then we must equip the next generation of workers with skills that benefit from technology rather than being threatened by it.

By: Date: July 24, 2014 Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy

Based on a European application of Frey & Osborne (2013)’s data on the probability of job automation across occupations, the proportion of the EU work force predicted to be impacted significantly by advances in technology over the coming decades ranges from the mid-40% range (similar to the US) up to well over 60%.

Source: Bruegel calculations based on Frey & Osborne (2013), ILO, EU Labour Force Survey

Those authors expect that key technological advances – particular in machine learning, artificial intelligence, and mobile robotics – will impact primarily upon low-wage, low-skill sectors traditionally immune from automation. As such, based on our application it is unsurprising that wealthy, northern EU countries are projected to be less affected than their peripheral neighbours.

But irrespective of geography these impacts will be substantial, averaging 54% across EU-28. In spite of several caveats we note in another more detailed blog post, the presently second-order issue of labour allocation in the face of technological change is likely to become a key policy concern in the coming years. What these estimates imply for policy is clear: if we believe that technology will be able to overcome traditional hurdles among non-routine cognitive tasks then we must equip the next generation of workers with skills that benefit from technology rather than being threatened by it. Such skills are likely to emphasise social and creative intelligence, which suggests that appropriate shifts in education policy are surely requisite in order to meet this automated challenge.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Apr
22
14:00

AI regulation at the service of industrial policy?

What role should the EU play in the regulation of AI?

Speakers: Julia Anderson, Joanna Bryson, Annika Linck and Martin Ulbrich Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

May
25
15:00

The work of the future: How are new jobs created and what are the implications for labour markets?

Join us for a presentation of 'New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940 — 2018' by David Autor (MIT and NBER) and the findings on the source of 'new work' followed by a discussion with an invited panel of academics and policy makers.

Speakers: David Autor, Maarten Goos, Barbara Kauffmann and Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy
Read article
 

Blog Post

An update: Vaccination in the EU

Progress has been made, but more progress is needed.

By: J. Scott Marcus and Niclas Poitiers Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 17, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

The four pillars of a digital strategy

The European Commission’s digital compass attempts to build strong fundamentals. It is a start. An ambitious digital agenda however requires a strategy that is all encompassing and coherent.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 16, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Declining competition: a transatlantic challenge

Join us for a discussion of transatlantic competition with Kristalina Georgieva, Margrethe Vestager and Amy Klobuchar among others.

Speakers: Romain Duval, Kristalina Georgieva, Greg Ip, Amy Klobuchar, Nancy Rose, Tommaso Valletti, Margrethe Vestager, David Wessel and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: March 15, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Self-employment, COVID-19, and the future of work for knowledge workers

The experiences of the self-employed could give a glimpse into the future of work for knowledge workers in a post-pandemic world.

By: Milena Nikolova Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 8, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Protecting workers in the platform economy

How can we protect platform workers while preserving the opportunities and benefits that are generated by the sharing economy?

Speakers: Payal Dalal, Mario Mariniello, Diane Mulcahy, Ana Carla Pereira, Jacob Rudbäck and Shamina Singh Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: February 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

Regulating big tech: the Digital Markets Act

The European Union’s proposed Digital Markets Act will attempt to control online gatekeepers by subjecting them to a wider range of upfront constraints.

By: Julia Anderson and Mario Mariniello Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: February 16, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Towards a European industrial renaissance?

An open-minded debate on the future of industry in Europe, hearing the perspective of European business leaders.

Speakers: Vinod Kumar, Jean-Marc Ollagnier, Claire Waysand and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: February 12, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Working Paper

Platform mergers and antitrust

This paper sets out a framework for addressing competition concerns arising from acquisitions in big platform ecosystems.

By: Geoffrey Parker, Georgios Petropoulos and Marshall Van Alstyne Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: January 26, 2021
Read article
 

Opinion

A green industrial policy for Europe

A ‘green industrial policy’ able to promote economic growth, job creation and environmental goals altogether will be fundamental to Europe’s climate change ambitions.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Energy & Climate, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: January 13, 2021
Read article Download PDF
 

Policy Contribution

The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD

The objective of MICROPROD, an EU-wide research project that runs until the end of 2021, is to understand what is driving the current productivity slowdown and what the potential consequences are for Europe's economic model and its citizens’ welfare. This Policy Contribution summarises the main, policy-relevant conclusions of the 20 MICROPROD papers delivered so far.

By: Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: January 6, 2021
Load more posts