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Working Paper

The long haul: debt sustainability analysis

The public debt ratio is set to decline in Greece, Ireland and Portugal under the maintained assumptions, but the debt trajectory remains vulnerable to negative growth, primary balance and interest rate shocks, even though we do not examine extremely negative scenarios.

By: and Date: June 17, 2014 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

See comment ‘Despite lower yields, euro-periphery is not yet out of the woods

This working paper details and updates the debt sustainability analysis of Darvas, Sapir and Wolff (2014) for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The goal is not the calculation of a baseline scenario which best corresponds to our views, but to set-up a baseline scenario which broadly corresponds to official assumptions and current market views and to assess its sensitivity to deviations from these assumptions.

The simulated public debt/GDP ratios are slightly lower compared to Darvas, Sapir and Wolff (2014), eg for 2020 our new results are 2-3 percent of GDP lower than in our February projections. This is because of the European Commission’s downward revision of the 2013 debt level for Greece and Ireland, higher expected primary surpluses in Ireland, slightly lower interest rates for all three countries, and a 1.5 percent of GDP higher reduction in the debt ratio due to the stock-flow adjustment in 2014-15 for Portugal.

Our findings suggests that the public debt ratio is set to decline in all three countries under the maintained assumptions, but the debt trajectory remains vulnerable to negative growth, primary balance and interest rate shocks, even though we do not examine extremely negative scenarios.

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Working Paper

COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies

This paper assesses COVID-19 credit-support programmes in five of the largest European economies, and examines how countries have dealt with trade-offs raised by the programmes.

By: Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia and Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 24, 2021
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Opinion

La dette : une obsession prématurée

Ce qui est malsain, avec la proposition d’annuler la dette, c’est le déni de réalité consistant à affirmer que l’Etat peut effacer une partie de ses engagements sans que cela ne coûte à personne.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 22, 2021
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Blog Post

Continuing fiscal support and the risk of inflation

Ongoing fiscal support in the United States is not expected to provoke inflation risks. There are no immediate inflationary risks in the euro area either.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 17, 2021
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Past Event

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The role of transition finance: a conversation with EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso

Join us in conversation with EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso.

Speakers: Odile Renaud-Basso and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 16, 2021
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Past Event

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Disruption or transformation: the impact of a digital euro on the financial system

How would a digital Euro impact the financial system?

Speakers: Fabio Panetta and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 10, 2021
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Opinion

Will COVID accelerate productivity growth?

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an increasing number of rich-country firms to reduce their reliance on global supply chains and invest more in robots at home. But it is probably too soon to tell whether this switch will increase productivity growth in advanced economies.

By: Dalia Marin Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: February 10, 2021
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Upcoming Event

Apr
21
14:00

Living standards and financial resilience across Europe

What has the impact of the pandemic on households’ financial resilience been, and how should policy makers respond?

Speakers: Zsolt Darvas, Maria Demertzis and Daniel Tomlinson Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Working Paper

European Union cohesion project characteristics and regional economic growth

A new approach, which estimates 'unexplained economic growth', provides insights into the types of European Union cohesion projects that produce better economic results for regions.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Jan Mazza and Catarina Midões Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 4, 2021
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Europe’s policymakers will have to take a series of decisions in the months ahead, in order to reinstate, and possibly reform, the bloc’s fiscal rulebook.

By: Thomas Wieser Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 3, 2021
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Policy Contribution

The geopolitics of the European Green Deal

The Green Deal will redefine Europe’s global policy priorities; as such, it is a foreign policy development with profound geopolitical consequences

By: Mark Leonard, Jeremy Shapiro, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 2, 2021
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Opinion

Why has the EU been so slow to roll out a Covid vaccination programme?

Europe was not prepared for the pandemic, but it must now learn lessons and use all its financial and political resources.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 28, 2021
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Past Event

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In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB's strategy review

The ECB is reviewing its monetary policy strategy. How to ensure monetary policy is fit for purpose in a fast changing world?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Philip Lane, Reza Moghadam and Erik F. Nielsen Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 27, 2021
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