Blog Post

Interactive chart: How Europe can replace Russian gas

But how much would these options cost Europe and Russia? How do these options play together? Is there a preferred alternative, or perhaps there is an optimal policy mix?

By: , and Date: March 27, 2014 Topic: Energy & Climate

Based on interactions with various stakeholders we updated several figures on March 25th (you may need to clear you cache for the changes to be reflected in the chart below).

  • Increasing imports from North Africa by 15 bcm will be difficult, as existing pipeline capacities to Italy are fully used already, while increasing exports to Spain will not be helpful, as no additional gas can be brought from the Iberian Peninsula to the rest of Europe. We adjust our estimate to 5 bcm.
  • The numbers for district heating gas consumption were largely overstated. We correct the corresponding numbers to 10 bcm. As it is anyway the most expensive option, it would have only been selected as a last resort.
  • Switching district heating from gas to oil in the import constraint countries Finland, Latvia and Estonia is, however, possible. Switching in Lithuania seems to be more difficult. Here, in the short term other options need to be developed. In the medium term Lithuania will install a floating LNG regasification terminal to allow gas imports from international LNG markets.
  • Increasing production in the Netherlands is technically possible, possibly much more than the 20 bcm we put. However, the Dutch government might be quite reluctant to allow even 20 bcm of additional production, as it just issued legislation to reduce production in order to control the gas-production induced seismic activities. So it is a question of political will and compensations. Hence we stick to the 20 bcm/y.
  • Power production from natural gas plays an important role in the UK and Italy. It will not be possible to fully replace those plants, given the lack of alternative capacities. We corrected the potential gas savings from 60 bcm/y to 40 bcm/y.
  • With these adjustments, we conclude that up to 190 bcm of alternative supplies might be available for the coming year.

Last week, we analysed whether Europe could replace Russian gas, and we identified some options for Europe to do so. These included importing natural gas from other sources or increasing domestic production.

But how much would these options cost Europe and Russia? How do these options play together? Is there a preferred alternative, or perhaps there is an optimal policy mix? We try to answer these questions in the simulator below, computing the impact of different options.

The chart is interactive: to display a scenario relative to a particular mix of alternatives, select all the desired options on the left. An alternative can be deselected by clicking it again. A small description of every option can be found below the chart by hovering the mouse over its label. The values of the exports, imports, and the cost of the selected mix are always calculated on the basis of their relative cost. This means that the most expensive selected alternative will only be used up to the point of zero imports from Russia.

You can also save the chart in its current state by clicking the button below. Share your preferred mix of alternatives with @Bruegel_org by using the hastag #ReplacingRussia.

Note:the figures should not be taken as a detailed and complete estimate of the costs of adopting a certain mix of alternatives. This chart is meant to show the relative interplay among the alternatives, and to make simplified comparisons.

Sources


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

Making sure green household investment pays off

Policies are needed to support green fuel switching by households; support should be phased out as the carbon price rises.

By: Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: July 19, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Belarus: a test for Europe’s foreign policy?

The forced landing of an internal EU flight is just the latest development in the President of Belarus’ efforts to cling to power.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 1, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

How to extend carbon pricing beyond the comfort zone

Rapid emission cuts need a carbon price for the whole economy. This must be introduced in careful stages. 

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 1, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

Navigating through hydrogen

Policymakers must address the need to displace carbon-intensive hydrogen with low-carbon hydrogen, and incentivise the uptake of hydrogen as a means to decarbonise sectors with hard-to-reduce emissions.

By: Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 1, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

A new carbon pricing paradigm for the path to net zero

Which role carbon pricing could and should play in the future policy mix?

Speakers: Ottmar Edenhofer, Peter Liese, Sam Van den Plas, Beatriz Yordi Aguirre and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 9, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

A whole-economy carbon price for Europe and how to get there

Putting carbon pricing at the centre of the EU climate policy architecture would provide major benefits. Obtaining these benefits requires a uniform, credible and durable carbon price – the economic first-best solution, however, several preconditions required to attain this solution are not yet met. This paper proposes a sequenced approach to ensure convergence of the policy mix on the first-best in the long run.

By: Ottmar Edenhofer, Mirjam Kosch, Michael Pahle and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 9, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Paris Reinforce: Central Asia and Caspian region Stakeholder Discussion Series #2

Second edition of the Paris Reinforce workshop with focus on Central Asian and Caspian (CAC) region.

Speakers: Gabriele Cassetti, Haris Doukas, Rocco De Miglio and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 2, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Paris Reinforce: Central Asia and Caspian region Stakeholder Discussion Series

New Paris Reinforce workshop with focus on Central Asian and Caspian (CAC) region.

Speakers: Gabriele Cassetti, Rocco De Miglio, Haris Doukas and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: December 9, 2020
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

External Publication

Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe

A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of “collective” science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research.

By: Alexandros Nikas, Ajay Gambhir, Evelina Trutnevyte, Konstantinos Koasidis, Henrik Lund, Jakob Zinck Thellufsen, Didier Mayer, Georg Zachmann, Luis Javier Miguel, Noelia Ferreras Alonso, Ida Sognnæs, Glen Peters, Enzo Colombo, Mark Howells, Adam D. Hawkes, Machteld Van Den Broek, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino, Alexandros Flamos and Haris Doukas Topic: Energy & Climate Date: November 5, 2020
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Paris Reinforce workshop on India's mitigation pathways

What are current greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios commonly proposed for India?

Speakers: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: November 3, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Understanding the world of tomorrow through the great challenges of energy and climate change

“Only a broad policy framework – taking into account economic, fiscal, industrial, labour, innovation and social policy issues – can address the challenges of the climate crisis in a balanced way.”

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: October 26, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Global Energy Fundamentals

Bruegel research fellow Simone Tagliapietra discusses his new book, Global Energy Fundamentals.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate Date: September 23, 2020
Load more posts