Blog Post

Is Abenomics’ success due to weaker YEN/USD exchange rate (as suggested by Big Mac Index)?

The Economist’s Big Mac Index suggests that the yen is undervalued by 30%.  The gap between “implied exchange rate” (local price divided by dollar price in the US) and actual rate is widened from a year before (5.4%). So is the success of Abenomics just due to the weak exchange rate?

By: Date: July 23, 2013 Topic: Global economy and trade

A plunge of Nikkei Index from the year-highest 15,942.60 on 23 May to 12,415.85 on 13 June triggered discussion that Abenomics is a failure. The Index has increased by 20% since then but this has not led to a positive re-assessment. No new concrete policy measures have been announced since then. 

In fact, Nikkei Index has been correlated with the exchange rate of the yen against dollar, even before Mr Abe was in office (figure 1).  Since the dissolution of the House of Representatives late last year yen has depreciated against dollar until middle May and the Nikkei Index has surged.

Figure 1: Recent development of stock price index and exchange rate

Meanwhile, the Economist’s Big Mac Index suggests that the yen is undervalued by 30% (figure 2).  The gap between “implied exchange rate” (local price divided by dollar price in the US) and actual rate is widened from a year before (5.4%). So is the success of Abenomics just due to the weak exchange rate? If the Index is a good proxy of the equilibrium exchange rate, the undervaluation of the yen could be the main driver of the success of Abenomics so far. More studies should be done to assess the true equilibrium exchange rate.

Figure 2: Undervaluation of the yen from the Big Mac rate

(Data source) The Economist.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Read article
 

Opinion

COP26: why carbon pricing is crucial to China’s climate change pledges

China’s emissions trading scheme is a welcome but to reach its full potential, it needs to cover more of China’s emissions, go beyond the electricity sector and let prices reflect the true cost of carbon.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Junyu Tan Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 22, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

External Publication

Global Economic Resilience: Building Forward Better

A roadmap for systemic economic reform calling for step-change in global economic governance to increase resilience and build forward better from economic shocks, prepared for the G7 Advisory Panel on Economic Resilience.

By: Thomas Wieser Topic: Global economy and trade, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 14, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Will ‘common prosperity’ address China’s inequality?

Why is China reviving this old mantra?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 13, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

Opinion

European governance

The inconsistency in global strategic relations

All of this talk on strategic retrenchment and autonomy is the language of escalation, not of appeasement and collaboration.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European governance, Global economy and trade Date: October 13, 2021
Read article
 

Opinion

Xi’s pledge on financing coal plants overseas misses point

China’s domestic installation of coal-fired power plants continues at great pace.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 7, 2021
Read article More by this author
 

Blog Post

European governance

Pandemic prevention: avoiding another cycle of ‘panic and neglect’

Agreement is needed at international level on mechanisms to ensure better preparedness for the next pandemic.

By: Anne Bucher Topic: European governance, Global economy and trade Date: October 7, 2021
Read article
 

Opinion

Will China use climate change as a bargaining chip?

Beijing shows signs of changing tactics ahead of the COP26 conference.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Global economy and trade, Green economy Date: October 6, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

External Publication

A world recovery fund to overcome developing countries’ post-covid debt woes?

Proposal to set up a World Recovery Fund (WRF), aimed at addressing some of the key problems with the design of the DSSI and more generally the existing international financial architecture for dealing with debt problems in the developing world.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 6, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

The geopolitical conquest of economics

Although economics and geopolitics have never been completely separate domains, international economic relations were shaped for 70 years by their own rules. But the rise of China and its growing rivalry with the United States have brought this era to an end.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 4, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

What Evergrande signals about China's economic future

Under Xi Jinping's new economic agenda 'common prosperity', China is cracking down on indebted real estate developers like Evergrande.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: September 30, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

German elections: seizing the moral and economic opportunity of global health security

The new German government should play its part in global health security and preparedness.

By: Amanda Glassman and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global economy and trade Date: September 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Europe doesn’t need a ‘Mega-Fab’

Europe should defend its existing dominance in equipment manufacturing for semiconductors and invest in chip design instead of luring high-end fabrication to its shores.

By: Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global economy and trade Date: September 22, 2021
Load more posts