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Policy Contribution

The Greek debt trap: an escape plan

Without corrective measures, Greek public debt will exceed 190 percent of GDP, instead of peaking at the anyway too-high target ratio of 167 percent of GDP of the March 2012 financial assistance programme. The rise is largely due to a negative feedback loop between high public debt and the collapse in GDP, and endangers Greek membership of the euro area. But a Greek exit would have devastating impacts both inside and outside Greece.

By: Date: November 9, 2012 Topic: Macroeconomic policy

A small reduction in the interest rate on bilateral loans, the exchange of European Central Bank holdings, buy-back of privately-held debt, and frontloading of some privatisation receipts are unlikely to be sufficient.

A credible resolution should involve the reduction of the official lending rate to zero until 2020, an extension of the maturity of all official lending, and indexing the notional amount of all official loans to Greek GDP. Thereby, the debt ratio would fall below 100 percent of GDP by 2020, and if the economy deteriorates further, there will not be a need for new arrangements. But if growth is better than expected, official creditors will also benefit.

In exchange for such help, the fiscal sovereignty of Greece should be curtailed further. An extended privatisation plan and future budget surpluses may be used to pay back the debt relief.

The Greek fiscal tragedy highlights the need for a formal debt restructuring mechanism.

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External Publication

European governance

EU borrowing—time to think of the generation after next

Financing post-pandemic recovery via EU borrowing has proved remarkably straightforward. So why keep it temporary?

By: Grégory Claeys, Rebecca Christie and Pauline Weil Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: December 9, 2021
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Blog Post

European governance

The Global Gateway: a real step towards a stronger Europe in the world?

Disappointment at the lack of fresh cash from European Union global connectivity strategy is short-sighted: Europe supports global development more than any other country in the world. Using existing funds more strategically is the right priority for now.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: European governance, Global economy and trade Date: December 7, 2021
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Parliamentary Testimony

Dutch Parliament

The future of the stability and growth pact

Testimony given to a Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal roundtable discussion on the future of the stability and growth pact.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Dutch Parliament Date: November 24, 2021
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Policy Contribution

European governance

Next Generation EU borrowing: a first assessment

The Next Generation EU programme is radically changing the way the EU finances itself and interacts with financial markets. This paper assesses the first design decisions made by the European Commission and the issuances that have taken place so far. It also outlines the potential risks and opportunities linked to this upgrading of the EU borrowing.

By: Rebecca Christie, Grégory Claeys and Pauline Weil Topic: Banking and capital markets, European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: November 10, 2021
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Opinion

European governance

Can EU fiscal rules jump on the green bandwagon?

By and large, setting a new green golden rule would be a useful addition to the existing EU fiscal framework.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European governance, Green economy, Macroeconomic policy Date: October 22, 2021
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External Publication

A world recovery fund to overcome developing countries’ post-covid debt woes?

Proposal to set up a World Recovery Fund (WRF), aimed at addressing some of the key problems with the design of the DSSI and more generally the existing international financial architecture for dealing with debt problems in the developing world.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 6, 2021
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Podcast

Podcast

A green fiscal pact

How can the European Union increase green public investment while consolidating budget deficits?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: September 29, 2021
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Policy Contribution

European governance

A green fiscal pact: climate investment in times of budget consolidation

Increasing green public investment while consolidating deficits will be a central challenge of this decade. A green fiscal pact would address this tension, but difficult trade-offs remain.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: September 9, 2021
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Policy Contribution

The risks from climate change to sovereign debt in Europe

European Union institutions and national fiscal authorities should incorporate climate risk in debt sustainability analysis.

By: Stavros Zenios Topic: Green economy Date: July 8, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

EU debt vs national debts: friends or foes?

The EU will become into a major issuer of safe assets in the coming years. How will this interact with the debt issuance of European sovereign debts?

Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Yves Jacob, Gert-Jan Koopman, Pablo de Ramón-Laca, Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau and Bruegel Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: June 29, 2021
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Blog Post

Setting Europe’s economic recovery in motion: a first look at national plans

Plans for spending European Union recovery funds submitted by the four largest EU countries reflect rather different priorities. So far, only Italy is interested in borrowing from the EU.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: April 29, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

Sovereign ratings during crises: is this time different?

Why, despite the increase in public debt levels around the world have sovereign ratings been largely unaffected by the COVID-19 crisis?

Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Alexandra Dimitrijevic, Judith Arnal Martínez and Daniel Vernazza Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: April 27, 2021
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