Blog Post

Filling Europe’s bottomless pit

After so many packages, the Greek parliament passed another round of austerity measures on Wednesday night. As reported by the Financial Times, the new measures include cuts of between 5 and 35 per cent in pensions and public sector salaries, tax increases on fuel and cigarettes, and higher charges for state healthcare. The retirement age […]

By: Date: November 9, 2012 Topic: Macroeconomic policy

After so many packages, the Greek parliament passed another round of austerity measures on Wednesday night. As reported by the Financial Times, the new measures include cuts of between 5 and 35 per cent in pensions and public sector salaries, tax increases on fuel and cigarettes, and higher charges for state healthcare. The retirement age will rise from 65 to 67 for recent entrants to the workforce.

Yet this will not at all solve the budget gap, which may seem like a bottomless pit from the eyes of euro-area partners. Greece has been granted two financial assistance programmes by euro-area partners and the IMF (the first in May 2010 and the second in March 2012), totalling almost €240 billion. But this amount will not be enough, as I concluded in a paper on the maths of the Greek public debt.

While policy slippages have also contributed to the bottomless budget gap, the ever-worsening economic outlook has had a decisive role. The perceived unsustainability of Greek public debt has likely contributed to the much deeper than expected GDP contraction and indeed the largest forecasting errors were made for Greece.

There are no easy solutions for the Greek public debt overhang: a small reduction in the interest rate on bilateral loans to Greece, the exchange of European Central Bank Greek bond holdings, buy-back of privately-held Greek debt, and frontloading of some privatisation receipts would not be sufficient. Policymakers have to recognise that their three refusals are inconsistent: no additional funding, no restructuring of official loans, and no default and exit from the euro.

Let’s keep exit excluded, for various reasons. A credible resolution is needed, which should involve the reduction of the official lending rate to zero until 2020 and indexing the notional amount of official loans to Greek GDP. Thereby, the debt ratio would fall below 100 percent of GDP by 2020, and if the economy deteriorates further, there will not be a need for new arrangements. But if growth is better than expected, official creditors will also benefit.

Yet in later years (realistically, beyond 2030), Greece should try to pay back the debt relief provided by the zero-interest lending, using an extended privatisation plan and future budget surpluses.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

May - Jun
31-1
10:30

MICROPROD Final Event

Improving understanding of productivity, its drivers and the way we measure it.

Speakers: Carlo Altomonte, Eric Bartelsman, Marta Bisztray, Peter Bøegh Nielsen, Italo Colantone, Maria Demertzis, Wolfhard Kaus, Javier Miranda, Steffen Müller, Hannu Piekkola, Verena Plümpe, Niclas Poitiers, Andrea Roventini, Gianluca Santoni, Valerie Smeets, Nicola Viegi and Markus Zimmermann Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Taming inflation?

What are the implications of prolonged inflation?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: May 25, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

How can we support and restructure firms hit by the COVID-19 crisis?

What are the vulnerabilities and risks in the enterprise sector and how prepared are countries to handle a large-scale restructuring of businesses?

Speakers: Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 25, 2022
Read about event
 

Past Event

Past Event

[Cancelled] Shifting taxes in order to achieve green goals

[This event is cancelled until further notice] How could shifting the tax burden from labour to pollution and resources help the EU reach its climate goals?

Speakers: Niclas Poitiers and Femke Groothuis Topic: Green economy, Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 12, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

How are crises changing central bank doctrines?

How is monetary policy evolving in the face of recent crises? With central banks taking on new roles, how accountable are they to democratic institutions?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Benoît Coeuré, Pervenche Berès, Hans-Helmut Kotz and Athanasios Orphanides Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 11, 2022
Read article Download PDF More by this author
 

Book/Special report

European governanceInclusive growth

Bruegel annual report 2021

The Bruegel annual report provides a broad overview of the organisation's work in the previous year.

By: Bruegel Topic: Banking and capital markets, Digital economy and innovation, European governance, Global economy and trade, Green economy, Inclusive growth, Macroeconomic policy Date: May 6, 2022
Read article Download PDF
 

Policy Contribution

European governance

Fiscal support and monetary vigilance: economic policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the European Union

Policymakers must think coherently about the joint implications of their actions, from sanctions on Russia to subsidies and transfers to their own citizens, and avoid taking measures that contradict each other. This is what we try to do in this Policy Contribution, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects of relevance for Europe.

By: Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: April 29, 2022
Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Working Paper

The low productivity of European firms: how can policies enhance the allocation of resources?

A summary of the most important policy lessons from research undertaken in the MICROPROD project work package 4, related to the allocation of the factors of production, with a special focus on the weak dynamism of European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

By: Grégory Claeys, Marie Le Mouel and Giovanni Sgaravatti Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: April 25, 2022
Read article More on this topic
 

External Publication

What drives implementation of the European Union’s policy recommendations to its member countries?

Article published in the Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: April 13, 2022
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author
 

Working Paper

Measuring the intangible economy to address policy challenges

The purpose of the first work package of the MICROPROD project was to improve the firm-level data infrastructure, expand the measurement of intangible assets and enable cross-country analyses of these productivity trends.

By: Marie Le Mouel Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: April 11, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Macroeconomic and financial stability in changing times: conversation with Andrew Bailey

Guntram Wolff will be joined in conversation by Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England.

Speakers: Andrew Bailey and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: March 28, 2022
Read article
 

Opinion

European governance

How to reconcile increased green public investment needs with fiscal consolidation

The EU’s ambitious emissions reduction targets will require a major increase in green investments. This column considers options for increasing public green investment when major consolidations are needed after the fiscal support provided during the pandemic. The authors make the case for a green golden rule allowing green investment to be funded by deficits that would not count in the fiscal rules. Concerns about ‘greenwashing’ could be addressed through a narrow definition of green investments and strong institutional scrutiny, while countries with debt sustainability concerns could initially rely only on NGEU for their green investment.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European governance, Green economy, Macroeconomic policy Date: March 8, 2022
Load more posts