Blog Post

Reflections after the G20 meeting in Mexico

In diplomatic language there is a difference between saying “event B cannot happen because condition A is not fulfilled” and saying “event B will happen if – or even as soon as – condition A is fulfilled”. This distinction helps understand what happened last weekend in the G20 ministerial meeting in Mexico City. A few […]

By: Date: February 29, 2012 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

In diplomatic language there is a difference between saying “event B cannot happen because condition A is not fulfilled” and saying “event B will happen if – or even as soon as – condition A is fulfilled”. This distinction helps understand what happened last weekend in the G20 ministerial meeting in Mexico City. A few hours ahead of the meeting, an agreement on a replenishment of IMF resources of the size asked by Managing Director Christine Lagarde (a “global firewall”), was a non-starter. The US, followed by almost everybody not located between the Atlantic and the Urals, opposed the move arguing that Europe should mobilize its resources first – in the implicit assumption that new IMF money would be used, first and foremost, to shore up European ailing sovereigns. In other words, general feelings were in the nature of the type-1 statement. Instead, what came out from the meeting sounded more like type-2. The passage from the final communiqué (http://www.g20mexico.org/es/centro-de-noticias/discursos/235-communique-meeting-of-finance-ministers-and-central-bank-governors) is worth reading:

We are reviewing options, as requested by Leaders (at the Cannes meeting, I add), to ensure resources for the IMF could be mobilized in a timely manner. We reaffirmed our commitment that the IMF should remain a quota-based institution and agreed that a feasible way to increase IMF resources in the short-run is through bilateral borrowing and note purchase agreements with a broad range of IMF members. These resources will be available for the whole membership of the IMF, and not earmarked for any particular region. Adequate risk mitigation features and conditionality would apply, as approved by the IMF Board. Progress on this strategy will be reviewed at the next Ministerial meeting in April.

More than written words, what impresses is a series of concentric statements around and after the meeting. As usual, Japan sounded the most eager to go ahead, but also Russia talked on the same line, and even China was unusually forthcoming, in the words of central bank governor Zhou: “China is an important member of the G20 … and will do its part…”. Brazil finance minister Guido Mantega, whose Genoese ascendancy probably explains a taste for bargain and compromise, linked emerging country financial support to further progress on IMF representation and governance. Here comes the real issue: this IMF replenishment offers emerging countries a rare chance to enhance their relevance as global partners, attaining two goals in one: strengthening the G20 and their own position in it.

The Mexican meeting unexpectedly achieved an important result: shifting expectations on future G20 meetings (another ministerial in Washington in April, followed by a Summit in the Mexican Baja California in June) from gridlock to agreement. This does not yet mean that agreement will automatically happen: an initial move from Europe (read, Germany) is still needed. Not much, probably; a temporary overlap of the eurozone’s temporary rescue facility (EFSF) with the forthcoming permanent one (ESM) – a choice not opposed by core Europe but so far considered by Germany “unnecessary” – may be enough. The way players are positioned at present suggests progress is possible. The German stance is driven by conflicting forces: on the one hand, a desire to build effective financial firewalls to relief market tensions, also in the interest of an exposed German financial sector; on the other, two countervailing caveats: that of discouraging reform in the European periphery and of alienating domestic public opinions, who loathe open ended support to weaker EU members. The point to be understood, however, is that success on strengthening the IMF would help dispel both fears. The first, because the concession of IMF support, in Europe and elsewhere, will be accompanied by strong conditionality; all the more so in Europe, where a German inspired “fiscal compact” has just been approved. The second because a concerted IMF replenishment, mobilising resources of wealthy emerging nations, would contribute to reduce the burden on German and other core EU taxpayers. Two results in one, also on the European side.

Taking a more general perspective and looking beyond the immediate concerns, an agreement on IMF resources would also help in two ways:

  1. Salvaging, at least for now, the G20 from a slide into irrelevance. Observers hailed the creation of the G20 summit in 2008 and welcomed its crisis management successes between November 2008 (Washington meeting) and September 2009 (Pittsburgh). After this, its weight declined steadily, as a joint paper with Jean Pisani Ferry, forthcoming in the Bruegel website [1], documents. Setting up a global financial firewall, with emerging countries joining forces with the G7 in preserving global financial stability, would be a tonic for the group’s credibility and confirm that the 2008 decision was a right one.
  2. Facilitating a further evolution in the role of the IMF. The IMF has changed a lot in recent years, but its transition from custodian of a system of adjustable exchange rate parities (and financier of temporary imbalances among nations) to guardian of global macro-financial stability (and, accordingly, lender-of-last-resort) was never complete. The latter would entail a much greater flexibility in the Fund’s operational toolkit, including, over time, a presence in the financial markets and in support of illiquid globally relevant financial institutions. The Fund’s articles of agreement, requiring it to act “with or through” national fiscal or monetary agencies, are not necessarily an impediment. The ESM treaty recently agreed among euro area governments contemplates such role fully, prescribing that the European “fund” will not only lend to nations, but also intervene in primary and secondary securities markets and recapitalise banks. The treaty also stipulates that the ESM will intervene, “whenever appropriate and possible”, together with the IMF. A collaboration that may, in the end, prove helpful not only for Europe, but for the IMF itself.

 

[1] The G20: characters in search of an author, by I. Angeloni and J. Pisani Ferry; Bruegel Working Papers, forthcoming.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

German elections: seizing the moral and economic opportunity of global health security

The new German government should play its part in global health security and preparedness.

By: Amanda Glassman and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Europe doesn’t need a ‘Mega-Fab’

Europe should defend its existing dominance in equipment manufacturing for semiconductors and invest in chip design instead of luring high-end fabrication to its shores.

By: Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 22, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

External Publication

Investing in China: myths and realities

Concerns are real, but the country fares as well as peers at similar levels of development. Analysis published in fDi Intelligence.

By: Uri Dadush and Pauline Weil Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 20, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Making supply chains more resilient

After the current global semiconductor shortage, business leaders and policymakers must think now about how to minimise the effects of future exogenous shocks on production networks and the global economy.

By: Dalia Marin Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 14, 2021
Read article More on this topic
 

External Publication

EU-India trade relations: assessment and perspectives

In-depth analysis prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA).

By: Suman Bery, Sonali Chowdhry, Alicia García-Herrero and Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 10, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

A Late Bloomer: where is China’s climate plan?

The world awaits China's concrete plan on carbon reduction, but the country is following its own pace.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 8, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

External Publication

What is behind China's Dual Circulation Strategy?

China's dual circulation strategy should not be dismissed as a buzzword: its implementation will entail major consequences.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 7, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Navigating a more polarised world: policy implications

Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 2 - Are we entering a new age in the relationship between international economics and global politics? Is Europe well-equipped for this new world?

Speakers: Hélène Rey, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Adam Tooze and Sabine Weyand Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Palais des Academies, Rue Ducale 1 Date: September 2, 2021
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author
 

Essay / Lecture

Global asymmetries strike back

This essay addresses an old question that international relations scholars view as fundamental, but which economists regard as secondary: that of asymmetries in international economic relations.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 2, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Towards a new global trade regime: reform of the WTO

Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 2 - the World Trade Organisation has been going through trying times, a phenomenon amplified by the pandemic. Why are we headed towards a new global trade regime? And what lies ahead for the WTO?

Speakers: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Palais des Academies, Rue Ducale 1 Date: September 2, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

The future of EU-Africa relations

Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 1 - A discussion of the state of play and outlook of EU-Africa relations.

Speakers: Masood Ahmed, Amadou Hott, André Sapir, Vera Songwe and Jutta Urpilainen Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 1, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

Resolving today’s global health crisis, and avoiding future pandemics

Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 1- How do we exit the COVID-19 pandemic and ensure the world of tomorrow is less vulnerable to future pandemics?

Speakers: Jeremy Farrar, Amanda Glassman, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 1, 2021
Load more posts