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Policy Contribution

Is recent bank stress really driven by the sovereign debt crisis?

Ahead of the European Council meeting on 23 October, the author outlines how EU Heads of States should focus on restoring confidence in euro-area policymakers’ ability and determination to put the euro area on a sound footing and restore market credibility.

By: Date: October 20, 2011 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Stress in the interbank market has increased dramatically since July and bank stock market valuation has fallen by 22 percent on average for 60 of the most important banks tested in the EBA stress tests.

I find evidence that bank stock valuation is significantly and economically meaningfully affected by the bank’s exposure to Greek debt. Greek banks are particularly affected. Holdings of debt of the other four periphery countries does not however appear to be a strong determinant of stock price movements. Policy announcements of 21 July of no haircut on any sovereign but Greece appear to be perceived as credible.

The exposure to Greece cannot explain the general and large decline in euro area banks’ market cap. Instead, a general confidence crisis of the euro area banking system, or more deeply the euro area construction, might be driving the fall in stock prices.

The summit of 23 October should focus on restoring confidence in euro-area policymakers’ ability and determination to put the euro area on a sound footing. Recapitalisation of banks can only be only one aspect. A credible solution to Greece and a way forward for the larger institutional set-up, including a federal fiscal back-stop of the banking system, are of at least equal importance.

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External Publication

European Parliament

The impact of COVID-19 on the Internal Market

Study assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the European Union's Internal Market and consumer protection prepared for the European Parliament.

By: J. Scott Marcus, Niclas Poitiers, Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Monika Grzegorczyk, Sophie Buckingham, Fernando Hortal Foronda, Norman Röhner and Jacques Pelkmans Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: March 1, 2021
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Working Paper

COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies

This paper assesses COVID-19 credit-support programmes in five of the largest European economies, and examines how countries have dealt with trade-offs raised by the programmes.

By: Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia and Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 24, 2021
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Opinion

La dette : une obsession prématurée

Ce qui est malsain, avec la proposition d’annuler la dette, c’est le déni de réalité consistant à affirmer que l’Etat peut effacer une partie de ses engagements sans que cela ne coûte à personne.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 22, 2021
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Blog Post

Continuing fiscal support and the risk of inflation

Ongoing fiscal support in the United States is not expected to provoke inflation risks. There are no immediate inflationary risks in the euro area either.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 17, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

The role of transition finance: a conversation with EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso

Join us in conversation with EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso.

Speakers: Odile Renaud-Basso and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 16, 2021
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Upcoming Event

Apr
21
14:00

Living standards and financial resilience across Europe

What has the impact of the pandemic on households’ financial resilience been, and how should policy makers respond?

Speakers: Zsolt Darvas, Maria Demertzis and Daniel Tomlinson Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Past Event

Past Event

Disruption or transformation: the impact of a digital euro on the financial system

How would a digital Euro impact the financial system?

Speakers: Fabio Panetta and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 10, 2021
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Opinion

Will COVID accelerate productivity growth?

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an increasing number of rich-country firms to reduce their reliance on global supply chains and invest more in robots at home. But it is probably too soon to tell whether this switch will increase productivity growth in advanced economies.

By: Dalia Marin Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: February 10, 2021
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Working Paper

European Union cohesion project characteristics and regional economic growth

A new approach, which estimates 'unexplained economic growth', provides insights into the types of European Union cohesion projects that produce better economic results for regions.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Jan Mazza and Catarina Midões Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 4, 2021
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Blog Post

The post-coronavirus fiscal policy questions Europe must answer

Europe’s policymakers will have to take a series of decisions in the months ahead, in order to reinstate, and possibly reform, the bloc’s fiscal rulebook.

By: Thomas Wieser Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 3, 2021
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Policy Contribution

The geopolitics of the European Green Deal

The Green Deal will redefine Europe’s global policy priorities; as such, it is a foreign policy development with profound geopolitical consequences

By: Mark Leonard, Jeremy Shapiro, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 2, 2021
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Opinion

Why has the EU been so slow to roll out a Covid vaccination programme?

Europe was not prepared for the pandemic, but it must now learn lessons and use all its financial and political resources.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 28, 2021
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