For a while, in the late summer, it seemed that the gloom over Europe was beginning to lift. The ECB’s commitment to “do whatever it takes” and political progress towards enhanced fiscal and economic integration led to an extended period of calm on the financial markets.
More recently, however, amid bickering over the details of both the planned banking union as well as the integration roadmap, and over further aid for Greece, the crisis is threatening to flare up again.
The Euro Monitor 2012 shows that, behind the less pretty headlines, genuine progress is being made towards restoring the health of the eurozone economy. Competitiveness is on the rise, external imbalances are shrivelling fast, and fiscal rectitude is returning. The road ahead is still long and arduous, but an admirable distance towards a brighter future has already been travelled. Although many of the Euro Monitor indicators for 2012 still show the ravages of recession and austerity drives, there are also early signs of improvement, suggesting that the fruits of structural reforms are set to emerge in 2013 or 2014 at the latest. Encouragingly, problem countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece managed to boost their overall rating.
About the Euro Monitor
Sustainable and balanced growth is essential if the credibility of the common currency is to be preserved. The Euro Monitor is a comprehensive set of indicators assessing the extent to which individual EMU member states are achieving balanced growth devoid of excessive imbalances, and thus contributing to the stability of the monetary union as a whole.
With the help of 15 indicators grouped into four categories, the Euro Monitor keeps track of the risks or opportunities the country-specific fundamentals pose for the eurozone as a whole. The four thematic categories are:
- Fiscal sustainability
- Competitiveness and domestic demand
- Jobs, productivity and resource efficiency
- Private and foreign debt
Please note that this event was held under the Chatham House Rule
- Michael Heise, Chief Economist, Allianz SE
- discussant - Anne Bucher, Director at DG Ecfin, European Commission
- discussant - André Sapir, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Professor of Economics at ULB
- chair - Zsolt Darvas, Research Fellow at Bruegel
- Venue: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Bruxelles
- Time: 27 November 2012, 12:00 - 13:30
- Contact: matilda.sevon[at]bruegel.org