Bruegel-Direktor Jean Pisani-Ferry und sein Stellvertreter Guntram Wolff zu Chancen und Risiken des neuen EU-Projekts Die Chefs der Eurozone haben beschlossen, eine Bankenunion zu gründen. Damit wollen sie den Teufelskreis aus schwachen Banken und zahlungsunfähigen Staaten durchbrechen. Dies ist ein wichtiger Schritt und eine angemessene Antwort auf die zunehmende finanzielle Fragmentierung des Europäischen Währungsraums. Mitte September hat die EU-Kommission ihre Vorschläge für eine gemeinsame Bankenaufsicht vorgelegt. Die Diskussion über diese Vorschläge wird bald beginnen. Sie wird zwangsläufig sehr komplex, technisch und kontrovers verlaufen. Denn das Misstrauen ist groß, und die Ansichten zwischen den Euroländern sind sehr verschieden. Dennoch ist es wichtig, die Debatte zum Erfolg zu führen. Dazu soll unser Fünf-Punkte-Plan beitragen. 1. Streben Sie eine umfassende Lösung an. Eine… Read more
Bruegel blog
-
Fünf Schritte zur europäischen Bankenunion
25th September 2012
-
Central banks on the offensive?
25th September 2012
It looks like a coordinated offensive: on September 6, the European Central Bank outlined a new bond-buying program, letting markets know that there were no pre-set limits to its purchases. On September 13, the United States Federal Reserve announced that in the coming months it would purchase some $85 billion of long-term securities per month, with the aim of putting downward pressure on long-term interest rates and supporting growth. Finally, on September 19, the Bank of Japan declared that it was adding another ¥10 trillion ($128 billion) to its government securities purchase program, and that it expected its total holdings of such paper to reach about $1 trillion by end-2013.There is, indeed, room for such concerted action, as the outlook… Read more
-
Market coupling does not lower prices!
25th September 2012
Market coupling is one of the key-policies for achieving the EU single electricity market. The EU Commission praises the price-lowering effects of market integration in the first draft of the Internal Market Communication of August 30th: “wholesale electricity prices in the EU have risen much less thanks to competition facilitated by increasing cross-border trading and market integration”. And common sense would indeed suggest that in competitive markets the average price of two market zones will be equal or lower when they are coupled than when they are separate. In fact, coupling should lead to lower average prices for typical electricity markets (increasing marginal cost on the supply side and price-inelastic demand). The intuitive reason is that the most expensive MWh… Read more
-
Blogs review: OMT - Has the ECB solved the Euro Crisis?
25th September 2012
What’s at stake: The ECB has announced “Outright Monetary Transactions” (OMT) on 6th September. Comprising of potentially unlimited purchases of government bonds, it is the largest ECB intervention so far. In the blogosphere, OMT is mainly evaluated as intended to prevent market panic from pushing otherwise solvent governments into bad equilibria, insolvency due to mounting interest payments. Criticism focuses on either conditionality requiring more austerity, stopping growth or on conditionality being not fully credible as OMT support cannot easily be withdrawn from non-compliant countries. Read more
-
UE, con le nuove regole possibile un anno in più per sanare i deficit
21st September 2012
Sembra esserci un generale consenso sul fatto che l’austerità abbia effetti recessivi, almeno nel breve termine. Lo ho ammesso lo stesso Monti spiegando come la scelta in favore del consolidamento sia stata tanto necessaria quanto dolorosa. Una buona parte dei politici europei invoca le regole fiscali europee per spiegare la necessità del rigore di fronte al proprio elettorato. L’Unione Europea ha per altro approvato un nuovo pacchetto legislativo che è in vigore dal dicembre 2011. Del rigore imposto dalle regole europee, specie quelle nuove, si parla molto; della loro flessibilità in circostanze eccezionali meno. Il Patto di Stabilità è sempre stato esplicito sul fatto che la correzione di deficit eccessivi dovesse avvenire in maniera più graduale in anni di recessione.… Read more
-
Spain: a tale of two crises
21st September 2012
In March, Jean Pisani-Ferry and I documented a significant capital flight affecting the euro-area periphery. The flight started in Greece, spilled over to the other programme countries and eventually reached Italy and Spain during summer 2011. The latest data shows that the situation is becoming extremely serious in Spain, where capital outflows since April 2011, when the acute phase of the crisis started, have reached 30% of pre-crisis GDP. Figure 1 – Cumulative capital inflows (% 2007 GDP) Note: data from national authorities. Capital flows are cumulated on the 2001 international investment liabilities This is not the first time that Spain has experienced a sudden stop, and looking at capital flights in an historical perspective is enlightening. Applying the methodology… Read more
-
The Medium and the Message
19th September 2012
As a think tank whose mission is to improve the quality of economic policymaking in Europe and globally, Bruegel’s greatest emphasis has always been on the message rather than the medium of the message. However, Bruegel has always been conscious of the way it communicates and with whom it communicates, knowing that better access to its policy suggestions and analysis improves the chances of being heard, understood and having impact. Bruegel’s Policy Brief, whilst not an original concept, was carefully designed to attract, and to have the maximum impact on people whose world was already beginning to move faster and faster. The development of on-line communication tools mirrored Bruegel’s own development to a certain extent: in the beginning Bruegel’s staff… Read more
-
Blogs review: The welfare state during times of economic crisis.
18th September 2012
What’s at stake: The current economic crisis has led to increased unemployment and put sharp pressure on government budgets. The welfare state can help mitigate the effects of the crisis on citizens, particularly through provision of unemployment insurance, but will also strongly be affected when budget consolidation is to occur through spending cuts. Furthermore, particularly American right wing commentators argue that European welfare states are root causes of the present sovereign debt crises. This review focuses on the perspectives for welfare states, particularly in Europe, under conditions of government budget consolidation. Read more
-
L’affaire des deux hôtels
17th September 2012
Ce sont deux hôtels alpins situés de part et d’autre de la frontière austro-italienne. Tout les rapproche : les paysages, la clientèle, le dialecte des employés. Ils facturent dans la même monnaie. Ils sont clients de la même banque, une grande institution paneuropéenne. Mais ils ne payent pas du tout le même taux d’intérêt : le coût du crédit est beaucoup plus cher pour l’établissement italien que pour son concurrent, parce que la banque applique à chacun le taux des emprunts d’Etat dans son propre pays, augmenté d’une prime de risque et des frais d’intermédiation. Le cas, authentique, résume la fragmentation financière à laquelle la zone euro fait face. Vingt ans après l’achèvement supposé du marché unique européen, la concurrence entre les… Read more
-
A five-step guide to European banking union
17th September 2012
Eurozone leaders have decided to create a banking union to help break the vicious circle between banking fragility and state insolvency. This is a bold move and an adequate response to the growing financial fragmentation of the European currency area. Last week the European Commission tabled its proposals for a single supervisory mechanism. Discussions on concrete proposals will start soon. They are bound to be highly complex, technical and controversial, because mistrust prevails and because participant countries hold very different views. However, it is important they succeed, so here is our five-point guide for the negotiators. 1. Be comprehensive. A true banking union must involve supervision, as currently discussed, but also resolution – how to wind-down ailing institutions – and… Read more