Eurostat published yesterday the flash GDP growth estimates for the first quarter of 2013: euro-area GDP is down by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter and 1% down compared with the same quarter of last year. Even German GDP fell by 0.3% compared with the same quarter of last year. European developments are in sharp contrast to the US, where annual growth was 1.8% in the first quarter of 2013 and where productivity is increasing, business investment has returned, credit is on the rise, and private consumption is increasing – after a major deleveraging of the household sector. Read more
Bruegel blog
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The harmful impact of short-term troubles on long-term growth
16th May 2013
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German wages grow faster than euro area average – Spring 2013 Review
8th May 2013
In December 2012 we published a blog post reporting that German wage growth rates (year-over-year comparison) for 2012 had been higher than the Eurozone average, with at that time, 2.5 percent versus 1.7 percent. In the meantime the annual rates for nominal wage and salary growth have been published showing that the difference has increased; German wage growth of 3 % compared to a 1.8 percent increase of the euro area. Read more
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New EC spring forecasts: high uncertainty dominates outlook for Cyprus
7th May 2013
Last Friday the European Commission released the spring update on their economic forecasts for European Union member states and some other advanced economies. Negative growth forecasts for the EU and the euro area reflect weakness in the periphery as well as in the core countries. The 2013 growth forecasts for the big European economies were all revised down. Major changes were made to the economic forecasts for Cyprus. Read more
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The new competition rules for technology transfer agreements
6th May 2013
On 18 April, Bruegel hosted a Competition Policy Lab. Competition Policy Labs offer an independent ‘hands-on’ platform for practitioners and academics to meet and discuss hot topics on the competition policy agenda. This time we had Anna Vernet and Luc Peeperkorn for the Commission, and Jacques Crémer from the Toulouse School of Economics. Read more
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Has the U.S. outperformed the euro area due to inflation since 2007?
30th April 2013
The nominal GDP growth differential between the U.S. and the euro area is striking: taking the latest forecasts of the European Commission into account, the U.S. outpaced the euro area by 9 percentage points in 2008-2013. Read more
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A black market in Cyprus? Lessons from Venezuela
30th April 2013
Wherever the government builds fences the market will place stairs to climb them. On March 28th, the Cypriot government imposed capital controls as a measure to avoid bank runs and financial instability in the small euro zone country, but so far there is very little evidence on the existence of a well-functioning black market in Cyprus. Read more
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Which way for the ECB?
30th April 2013
Ahead of the ECB meeting, the debate on the right course for euro area macroeconomic policies has re-emerged. An interesting new feature of the debate is about differentiating monetary policy to better cater for different conditions in different countries of the euro area. So should there be more differentiation of monetary policy across countries and how much can monetary policy achieve? Read more
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Who got their money out of Cyprus?
26th April 2013
The Central Bank of Cyprus released data today on the amount of deposits in Cypriot banks at the end of March. The original rescue plan, involving haircuts to uninsured deposits, was announced on the 16th of March and the final modified agreement on the 25th of March. The data is therefore an early indicator of: (i) the degree of rush by depositors to withdraw their money; (ii) the efficiency of Cypriot capital controls. Read more
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La voie étroite de l’intelligence budgétaire
23rd April 2013
Le débat sur l’austérité budgétaire a repris en Europe. Ce n’est pas étonnant. Read more
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What is the net of good and bad news from Brussels and Washington?
22nd April 2013
The short answer is: somewhat positive. The longer, but still broad-brush, answer starts from noting that two important documents have been issued in the last few days: the In-depth reviews following the so called AMR (Alert Mechanism Report) from the European Commission and the World Economic Outlook from the IMF. Read more