Intra-EU migration increased before the crisis, especially into booming countries like Ireland and Spain. What happened during the crisis? Read more
Bruegel blog
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Where does the youth exodus come from?
7th June 2013
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Europa droht eine verlorene Dekade
24th May 2013
Bruegel-Forscher Zsolt Darvas über die schädlichen Folgen aktueller Konjunkturprobleme für das langfristige Wachstum. Read more
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The harmful impact of short-term troubles on long-term growth
16th May 2013
Eurostat published yesterday the flash GDP growth estimates for the first quarter of 2013: euro-area GDP is down by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter and 1% down compared with the same quarter of last year. Even German GDP fell by 0.3% compared with the same quarter of last year. European developments are in sharp contrast to the US, where annual growth was 1.8% in the first quarter of 2013 and where productivity is increasing, business investment has returned, credit is on the rise, and private consumption is increasing – after a major deleveraging of the household sector. Read more
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New IMF growth forecasts: EU revised downward, once again
16th April 2013
The IMF published its new World Economic Outlook today (see the report here and the database here). Once again, euro-area’s outlook has been revised downward, but this is not the case for the USA and Japan. Read more
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Europe’s banks need to be recapitalised – now
15th April 2013
Europe’s growth performance was disappointing before the financial crisis. It has been dismal since. Five years into the “great recession”, the risk for Europe is to remain trapped in stagnation. Vicious circles are apparent across the continent: weak growth undermines deleveraging and fuels banking fragility. Read more
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Time for us to bank on a new Marshall Plan
2nd April 2013
Almost like a bolt from the blue, the Eurogroup meeting of euro-area finance ministers, along with the troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, agreed on March 16 to a tax on all deposits in Cyprus, including small deposits. Read more
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Large banks relative to GDP: is there a risk beyond Cyprus?
28th March 2013
Are other EU countries with large bank balance sheet relative to GDP also running a risk similar to Cyprus? The answer is no. The major reason for the banking troubles in Cyprus is the massive losses that the two biggest banks have suffered. But in other euro-area countries with big banking sectors this is not the case, as we show below. Read more
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It is not yet too late to drop the idea of capital controls in Cyprus
27th March 2013
The Cypriot finance minister Michael Sarris yesterday announced that Cyprus would introduce capital controls (see an FT report here). He announced that measures would be “very differentiated” according to the situation of the bank and as loose as possible in order to allow for a restart of the economy. Read more
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The new Cyprus deal: victory of common sense
25th March 2013
The new deal on Cyprus does not only have the right intentions, but averts the two major flaws of the previous deal: It fully protects insured deposits up to the €100,000 amount guaranteed by deposit insurance in all banks, and It bails-in all bondholders and shareholders. Read more
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What comes after finance in Cyprus?
24th March 2013
The prominent role of Cyprus's financial services is probably over anyway, irrespective of the actual content of the forthcoming agreement between the troika and Cyprus. I put together some simple tables showing the structure of the economy in Cyprus and in three other countries that suffered from massive banking crises during the past few years: Ireland, Iceland and Latvia (see a December 2011 policy contribution of mine comparing the adjustments of these three countries - "A tale of three countries: recovery after banking crises"). Here are some observations. Read more